2026 Michigan vs 2026 Oklahoma

Hypothetical

Oklahoma by 3.5

60% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

MichiganPreseason baseline +16.6In-season results −2.6

OklahomaPreseason baseline +21.6In-season results −1.6

Michigan home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Michigan	2026 Oklahoma
Offensive / play	0.0932nd percentile	−0.047th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.1196th percentile	−0.1699th percentile
Points per game	23.026th percentile5 games	23.026th percentile5 games
per game	15.886th percentile5 games	17.680th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Michigan2026 Oklahoma

Momentum

Michigan→ steady (+3 pctl over 3 seasons)

Oklahoma→ steady (+4 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Michigan

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 91st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 84th percentile

Matching its talent (−7)

2026 Oklahoma

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 93rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 79th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−14)

Campus distance

885 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Michigan OL vs 2026 Oklahoma DL	307.7 lbs	277.9 lbs
2026 Oklahoma OL vs 2026 Michigan DL	318.6 lbs	277.2 lbs

2026 Michigan line yards 3.16 · 2026 Oklahoma stuff rate 18.9%

2026 Oklahoma line yards 2.43 · 2026 Michigan stuff rate 22.4%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · series tied 1–1 since 2000

Michigan has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Michigan 17–10 Oklahoma	Michigan Stadium · Michigan home
2025	Michigan 13–24 Oklahoma	Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · Oklahoma home

Coaching & program context

2026 Michigan

Kyle Whittingham (First season as Michigan's head coach)

Jason Beck

career average +29.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 20th percentile of 2026 FBS; 59.4 plays a game, 6th percentile)

Jay Hill

career average +22.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Oklahoma

Brent Venables

Ben Arbuckle

career average +31.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread / air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 45th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.8 plays a game, 18th percentile)

Todd Bates

career average +19.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.