2026 Miami vs 2026 Wake Forest
Hypothetical
90% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Miami Offense · SP+ 2026: 40.6, 99th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wake Forest Offense · SP+ 2026: 32.6, 76th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.1, 97th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wake Forest Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.3, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Wake Forest Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 284.6 pts, 94th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Wake Forest Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 217.9 pts, 72nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Miami Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning, 45th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Wake Forest Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning, 19th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Miami | 2026 Wake Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.42100th percentile | 0.3190th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0685th percentile | 0.0842nd percentile |
| Points per game | 49.6100th percentile5 games | 36.880th percentile6 games |
| per game | 9.8100th percentile5 games | 21.563rd percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 95th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 98th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 62nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 74th percentile
Campus distance
705 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Miami OL vs 2026 Wake Forest DL | 318.7 lbs | 273.0 lbs |
| 2026 Wake Forest OL vs 2026 Miami DL | 302.7 lbs | 263.5 lbs |
2026 Miami line yards 3.89 · 2026 Wake Forest stuff rate 24.2%
2026 Wake Forest line yards 3.02 · 2026 Miami stuff rate 24.5%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Miami leads 7–0 since 2000
Miami has won 7 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Miami 33–20 Wake Forest | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2024 | Miami 42–14 Wake Forest | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2013 | Miami 24–21 Wake Forest | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2009 | Miami 28–27 Wake Forest | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2008 | Miami 16–10 Wake Forest | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2005 | Miami 47–17 Wake Forest | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Wake Forest home |
| 2004 | Miami 52–7 Wake Forest | Miami home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Mario Cristobal
OC
- Shannon Dawson
career average +30.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 56th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.8 plays a game, 63rd percentile)
DC
- Corey Hetherman
career average +14.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Jake Dickert
OC
- Rob Ezell
career average +28.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 63rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.8 plays a game, 45th percentile)
DC
- Scottie Hazelton
career average +25.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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