2026 Miami vs 2026 Clemson
Hypothetical
95% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Miami Offense · SP+ 2026: 40.6, 99th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Clemson Offense · SP+ 2026: 22.6, 30th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.1, 97th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Clemson Defense · SP+ 2026: 20.7, 79th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Clemson Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 284.6 pts, 94th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Clemson Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 243.3 pts, 86th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Miami Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning, 45th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Clemson Experience · returning production 2026: 41% returning, 54th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Miami | 2026 Clemson |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.42100th percentile | −0.047th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0685th percentile | 0.0747th percentile |
| Points per game | 49.6100th percentile5 games | 19.415th percentile5 games |
| per game | 9.8100th percentile5 games | 25.834th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 95th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 98th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 88th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 56th percentile
Campus distance
620 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Miami OL vs 2026 Clemson DL | 318.7 lbs | 273.6 lbs |
| 2026 Clemson OL vs 2026 Miami DL | 304.3 lbs | 263.5 lbs |
2026 Miami line yards 3.89 · 2026 Clemson stuff rate 11.5%
2026 Clemson line yards 2.75 · 2026 Miami stuff rate 24.5%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Clemson leads 6–4 since 2000
Miami has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Miami 41–13 Clemson | Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson home |
| 2023 | Miami 28–20 Clemson | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2022 | Miami 10–40 Clemson | Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson home |
| 2020 | Miami 17–42 Clemson | Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson home |
| 2017 | Miami 3–38 Clemson | Neutral site |
| 2015 | Miami 0–58 Clemson | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2010 | Miami 30–21 Clemson | Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson home |
| 2009 | Miami 37–40 Clemson | Hard Rock Stadium · Miami home |
| 2005 | Miami 36–30 Clemson | Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson home |
| 2004 | Miami 17–24 Clemson | Miami home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Mario Cristobal
OC
- Shannon Dawson
career average +30.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 56th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.8 plays a game, 63rd percentile)
DC
- Corey Hetherman
career average +14.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Dabo Swinney
OC
- Chad Morris
- Kyle Richardson (co-OC)
- Matt Luke (co-OC)
career average +31.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 47th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.0 plays a game, 47th percentile)
DC
- Nick Eason (co-DC)
- Tom Allen
career average +19.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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