2026 Miami (OH) vs 2026 Akron
Hypothetical
69% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Miami (OH) Offense · SP+ 2026: 22.2, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Akron Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.0, 7th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami (OH) Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.6, 34th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Akron Defense · SP+ 2026: 36.9, 5th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami (OH) Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Akron Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.5, 0th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Miami (OH) Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 175.9 pts, 24th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Akron Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 147.4 pts, 4th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Miami (OH) Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning, 17th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Akron Experience · returning production 2026: 92% returning, 97th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Miami (OH) | 2026 Akron |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1753rd percentile | 0.0932nd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1522nd percentile | 0.254th percentile |
| Points per game | 25.734th percentile6 games | 19.715th percentile6 games |
| per game | 27.526th percentile6 games | 32.213th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 31st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 29th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 14th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 5th percentile
Campus distance
200 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Miami (OH) OL vs 2026 Akron DL | 299.1 lbs | 263.7 lbs |
| 2026 Akron OL vs 2026 Miami (OH) DL | 299.4 lbs | 259.1 lbs |
2026 Miami (OH) line yards 3.06 · 2026 Akron stuff rate 17.1%
2026 Akron line yards 3.61 · 2026 Miami (OH) stuff rate 22.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Miami (OH) leads 17–6 since 2000
Miami (OH) has won 8 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Miami (OH) 20–7 Akron | InfoCision Stadium · Akron home |
| 2023 | Miami (OH) 19–0 Akron | Yager Stadium · Miami (OH) home |
| 2022 | Miami (OH) 27–9 Akron | InfoCision Stadium · Akron home |
| 2021 | Miami (OH) 34–21 Akron | Yager Stadium · Miami (OH) home |
| 2020 | Miami (OH) 38–7 Akron | InfoCision Stadium · Akron home |
| 2019 | Miami (OH) 20–17 Akron | Yager Stadium · Miami (OH) home |
| 2018 | Miami (OH) 41–17 Akron | InfoCision Stadium · Akron home |
| 2017 | Miami (OH) 24–14 Akron | Yager Stadium · Miami (OH) home |
| 2016 | Miami (OH) 13–35 Akron | InfoCision Stadium · Akron home |
| 2015 | Miami (OH) 28–37 Akron | Yager Stadium · Miami (OH) home |
| 2014 | Miami (OH) 19–29 Akron | InfoCision Stadium · Akron home |
| 2013 | Miami (OH) 17–24 Akron | Yager Stadium · Miami (OH) home |
| 2012 | Miami (OH) 56–49 Akron | InfoCision Stadium · Akron home |
| 2011 | Miami (OH) 35–3 Akron | Yager Stadium · Miami (OH) home |
| 2010 | Miami (OH) 19–14 Akron | InfoCision Stadium · Akron home |
| 2007 | Miami (OH) 7–0 Akron | Yager Stadium · Miami (OH) home |
| 2006 | Miami (OH) 13–24 Akron | Akron home |
| 2005 | Miami (OH) 51–23 Akron | Yager Stadium · Miami (OH) home |
| 2004 | Miami (OH) 37–27 Akron | Akron home |
| 2003 | Miami (OH) 45–20 Akron | Yager Stadium · Miami (OH) home |
| 2002 | Miami (OH) 48–31 Akron | Akron home |
| 2001 | Miami (OH) 30–27 Akron | Yager Stadium · Miami (OH) home |
| 2000 | Miami (OH) 20–37 Akron | Akron home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Chuck Martin
OC: no staff data on file
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 46th percentile of 2026 FBS; 59.0 plays a game, 5th percentile)
DC: no staff data on file
HC
- Joe Moorhead
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: Up-tempo spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 66th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.8 plays a game, 30th percentile)
DC
- Tim Tibesar
career average +32.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Akron at Miami (OH) · October 17, 2026
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