2026 Memphis vs 2026 UNLV

Hypothetical

Memphis by 9.4

75% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

MemphisIn-season results +4.7Preseason baseline +3.3

UNLVPreseason baseline +2.0In-season results −0.9

Memphis home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Memphis	2026 UNLV
Offensive / play	0.2883rd percentile	0.0625th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0648th percentile	0.0262nd percentile
Points per game	38.584th percentile6 games	23.026th percentile6 games
per game	20.866th percentile6 games	20.866th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Memphis2026 UNLV

Momentum

Memphis↘ falling (−11 pctl over 3 seasons)

UNLV↘ falling (−28 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Memphis

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 52nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 66th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+13)

2026 UNLV

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 33rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 46th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+13)

Campus distance

1410 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Memphis OL vs 2026 UNLV DL	307.5 lbs	280.9 lbs
2026 UNLV OL vs 2026 Memphis DL	312.1 lbs	275.4 lbs

2026 Memphis line yards 3.54 · 2026 UNLV stuff rate 16.8%

2026 UNLV line yards 3.06 · 2026 Memphis stuff rate 14.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Memphis leads 1–0 since 2000

Memphis has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Memphis 27–21 UNLV	Allegiant Stadium · UNLV home

Coaching & program context

2026 Memphis

Charles Huff (First season as Memphis's head coach)

David Weeks (co-OC)
Kevin Decker

career average +26.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 38% of its run–pass plays, 15th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.7 plays a game, 61st percentile)

Lance Guidry

career average +24.0 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 UNLV

Dan Mullen

Corey Dennis

career average +33.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 39% of its run–pass plays, 18th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.0 plays a game, 55th percentile)

Paul Guenther

career average +29.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.