2026 Memphis vs 2026 Arkansas State
Hypothetical
79% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Memphis Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.1, 81st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arkansas State Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.2, 43rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Memphis Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.6, 44th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arkansas State Defense · SP+ 2026: 34.2, 11th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Memphis Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arkansas State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Memphis Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 189.2 pts, 48th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Arkansas State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 183.8 pts, 39th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Memphis Experience · returning production 2026: 6% returning, 7th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Arkansas State Experience · returning production 2026: 30% returning, 35th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Memphis | 2026 Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2883rd percentile | 0.1857th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0648th percentile | 0.2111th percentile |
| Points per game | 38.584th percentile6 games | 28.246th percentile6 games |
| per game | 20.866th percentile6 games | 28.819th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 52nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 66th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 43rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 25th percentile
Campus distance
65 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Memphis OL vs 2026 Arkansas State DL | 307.5 lbs | 267.4 lbs |
| 2026 Arkansas State OL vs 2026 Memphis DL | 310.8 lbs | 275.4 lbs |
2026 Memphis line yards 3.54 · 2026 Arkansas State stuff rate 13.0%
2026 Arkansas State line yards 3.24 · 2026 Memphis stuff rate 14.5%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Memphis leads 10–4 since 2000
Memphis has won 6 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Memphis 42–24 Arkansas State | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2023 | Memphis 37–3 Arkansas State | Centennial Bank Stadium · Arkansas State home |
| 2022 | Memphis 44–32 Arkansas State | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2021 | Memphis 55–50 Arkansas State | Centennial Bank Stadium · Arkansas State home |
| 2020 | Memphis 37–24 Arkansas State | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2013 | Memphis 31–7 Arkansas State | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2012 | Memphis 28–33 Arkansas State | Centennial Bank Stadium · Arkansas State home |
| 2011 | Memphis 3–47 Arkansas State | Centennial Bank Stadium · Arkansas State home |
| 2008 | Memphis 29–17 Arkansas State | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2007 | Memphis 31–35 Arkansas State | Arkansas State home |
| 2006 | Memphis 23–26 Arkansas State | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2004 | Memphis 47–35 Arkansas State | Arkansas State home |
| 2003 | Memphis 38–16 Arkansas State | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium · Memphis home |
| 2000 | Memphis 19–17 Arkansas State | Arkansas State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Charles Huff (First season as Memphis's head coach)
OC
- David Weeks (co-OC)
- Kevin Decker
career average +26.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 38% of its run–pass plays, 15th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.7 plays a game, 61st percentile)
DC
- Lance Guidry
career average +24.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Butch Jones
OC
- Garrett Altman
no career track record on file
Scheme: no scheme listed
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 75th percentile of 2026 FBS; 60.2 plays a game, 8th percentile)
DC
- Griff McCarley
career average +33.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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