2026 Massachusetts vs 2026 Buffalo
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Massachusetts Offense · SP+ 2026: 20.0, 21st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Buffalo Offense · SP+ 2026: 14.7, 6th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Massachusetts Defense · SP+ 2026: 29.4, 30th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Buffalo Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.9, 32nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Massachusetts Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Buffalo Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Massachusetts Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 167.0 pts, 16th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Buffalo Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 176.6 pts, 27th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Massachusetts Experience · returning production 2026: 0% returning, 0th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Buffalo Experience · returning production 2026: 0% returning, 0th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Massachusetts | 2026 Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2064th percentile | 0.0318th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0377th percentile | 0.1134th percentile |
| Points per game | 29.751st percentile6 games | 20.817th percentile6 games |
| per game | 18.278th percentile6 games | 26.828th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 7th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 23rd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 29th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 11th percentile
Campus distance
320 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Massachusetts OL vs 2026 Buffalo DL | 314.7 lbs | 254.4 lbs |
| 2026 Buffalo OL vs 2026 Massachusetts DL | 298.1 lbs | 273.1 lbs |
2026 Massachusetts line yards 3.25 · 2026 Buffalo stuff rate 16.4%
2026 Buffalo line yards 2.72 · 2026 Massachusetts stuff rate 20.8%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Buffalo leads 6–1 since 2000
Buffalo has won 3 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Massachusetts 21–28 Buffalo | Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Massachusetts home |
| 2024 | Massachusetts 3–34 Buffalo | UB Stadium · Buffalo home |
| 2022 | Massachusetts 7–34 Buffalo | Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Massachusetts home |
| 2015 | Massachusetts 31–26 Buffalo | UB Stadium · Buffalo home |
| 2014 | Massachusetts 21–41 Buffalo | Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Massachusetts home |
| 2013 | Massachusetts 3–32 Buffalo | UB Stadium · Buffalo home |
| 2012 | Massachusetts 19–29 Buffalo | Gillette Stadium · Massachusetts home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Joe Harasymiak
OC: no staff data on file
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 25th percentile of 2026 FBS; 56.5 plays a game, 1st percentile)
DC: no staff data on file
HC
- Pete Lembo
OC
- Tony Tokarz
no career track record on file
Scheme: no scheme listed
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 31st percentile of 2026 FBS; 75.7 plays a game, 94th percentile)
DC
- Brian Dougherty
no career track record on file
Scheme: no scheme listed
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Massachusetts at Buffalo · October 17, 2026
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