2026 Maryland vs 2026 UConn

Hypothetical

Maryland by 2.5

57% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

MarylandPreseason baseline +4.7In-season results −4.0

UConnPreseason baseline −3.0In-season results +1.1

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Maryland	2026 UConn
Offensive / play	0.0318th percentile	0.2271st percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0842nd percentile	0.0842nd percentile
Points per game	28.045th percentile6 games	35.775th percentile6 games
per game	32.79th percentile6 games	25.241st percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Maryland2026 UConn

Momentum

Maryland→ steady (+6 pctl over 3 seasons)

UConn→ steady (−8 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Maryland

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 74th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 42nd percentile

Underperforming its talent (−33)

2026 UConn

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 14th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 42nd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+28)

Campus distance

295 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Maryland OL vs 2026 UConn DL	311.2 lbs	264.9 lbs
2026 UConn OL vs 2026 Maryland DL	296.6 lbs	289.2 lbs

2026 Maryland line yards 2.86 · 2026 UConn stuff rate 17.4%

2026 UConn line yards 3.20 · 2026 Maryland stuff rate 18.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Maryland leads 3–1 since 2000

Maryland has won 3 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Maryland 38–14 UConn	Pratt & Whitney Stadium · UConn home
2024	Maryland 50–7 UConn	SECU Stadium · Maryland home
2013	Maryland 32–21 UConn	Pratt & Whitney Stadium · UConn home
2012	Maryland 21–24 UConn	SECU Stadium · Maryland home

Coaching & program context

2026 Maryland

Mike Locksley

Clint Trickett

career average +22.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Run and gun (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 56% of its run–pass plays, 97th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.0 plays a game, 69th percentile)

Aazaar Abdul-Rahim (co-DC)
Ted Monachino

career average +26.0 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 UConn

Jason Candle (First season as UConn's head coach)

Nunzio Campanile

no career track record on file

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 42nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.8 plays a game, 45th percentile)

Ryan Manalac

no career track record on file

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.