2026 LSU vs 2026 Mississippi State
Hypothetical
70% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 LSU Offense · SP+ 2026: 36.7, 91st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Offense · SP+ 2026: 37.8, 92nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 LSU Defense · SP+ 2026: 14.9, 93rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.5, 53rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 LSU Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 LSU Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 272.7 pts, 93rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Mississippi State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 230.6 pts, 84th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 LSU Experience · returning production 2026: 21% returning, 29th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Mississippi State Experience · returning production 2026: 34% returning, 39th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 LSU | 2026 Mississippi State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2681st percentile | 0.2883rd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.1093rd percentile | 0.0936th percentile |
| Points per game | 42.094th percentile6 games | 39.086th percentile5 games |
| per game | 18.577th percentile6 games | 28.020th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 94th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 94th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 81st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 80th percentile
Campus distance
255 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 LSU OL vs 2026 Mississippi State DL | 305.7 lbs | 286.9 lbs |
| 2026 Mississippi State OL vs 2026 LSU DL | 323.2 lbs | 274.7 lbs |
2026 LSU line yards 3.09 · 2026 Mississippi State stuff rate 13.7%
2026 Mississippi State line yards 3.03 · 2026 LSU stuff rate 24.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · LSU leads 21–3 since 2000
LSU has won 3 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | LSU 41–14 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2022 | LSU 31–16 Mississippi State | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2021 | LSU 28–25 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2020 | LSU 34–44 Mississippi State | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2019 | LSU 36–13 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2018 | LSU 19–3 Mississippi State | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2017 | LSU 7–37 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2016 | LSU 23–20 Mississippi State | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2015 | LSU 21–19 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2014 | LSU 29–34 Mississippi State | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2013 | LSU 59–26 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2012 | LSU 37–17 Mississippi State | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2011 | LSU 19–6 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2010 | LSU 29–7 Mississippi State | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2009 | LSU 30–26 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2008 | LSU 34–24 Mississippi State | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2007 | LSU 45–0 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2006 | LSU 48–17 Mississippi State | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2005 | LSU 37–7 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2004 | LSU 51–0 Mississippi State | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2003 | LSU 41–6 Mississippi State | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2002 | LSU 31–13 Mississippi State | Tiger Stadium (LA) · LSU home |
| 2001 | LSU 42–0 Mississippi State | Mississippi State home |
| 2000 | LSU 45–38 Mississippi State | LSU home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Lane Kiffin (First season as LSU's head coach)
OC
- Charlie Weis Jr.
- Joe Cox (co-OC)
career average +33.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 40th percentile of 2026 FBS; 82.0 plays a game, 99th percentile)
DC
- Blake Baker
- Chris Kiffin (co-DC)
career average +25.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Jeff Lebby
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 59th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.0 plays a game, 82nd percentile)
DC
- Zach Arnett
career average +19.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Mississippi State at LSU · October 17, 2026
Share this matchup
Pasting the link anywhere unfurls the graphic automatically.
