2026 Louisville vs 2026 SMU

Hypothetical

Louisville by 3.0

58% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

LouisvillePreseason baseline +10.4In-season results +3.3

SMUPreseason baseline +15.5In-season results −4.7

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Louisville	2026 SMU
Offensive / play	0.3496th percentile	0.2271st percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1232nd percentile	0.0458th percentile
Points per game	39.589th percentile6 games	34.666th percentile5 games
per game	27.724th percentile6 games	23.053rd percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Louisville2026 SMU

Momentum

Louisville→ steady (−2 pctl over 3 seasons)

SMU→ steady (−10 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Louisville

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 63rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 82nd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+20)

2026 SMU

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 55th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 82nd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+26)

Campus distance

720 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Louisville OL vs 2026 SMU DL	304.7 lbs	273.6 lbs
2026 SMU OL vs 2026 Louisville DL	310.5 lbs	276.5 lbs

2026 Louisville line yards 2.97 · 2026 SMU stuff rate 23.2%

2026 SMU line yards 2.75 · 2026 Louisville stuff rate 11.6%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · SMU leads 2–1 since 2000

Louisville has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Louisville 41–31 SMU	L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville home
2025	Louisville 6–38 SMU	Gerald J. Ford Stadium · SMU home
2024	Louisville 27–34 SMU	L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville home

Coaching & program context

2026 Louisville

Jeff Brohm

Brian Brohm

career average +33.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 27th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.2 plays a game, 26th percentile)

Mark Ivey (co-DC)
Steve Ellis (co-DC)

career average +35.4 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 SMU

Rhett Lashlee

Garin Justice (co-OC)
Rob Likens (co-OC)

career average +30.1 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 77th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.2 plays a game, 67th percentile)

Maurice Crum Jr. (co-DC)
Rickey Hunley Jr. (co-DC)

career average +21.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.