2026 Kansas State vs 2026 Kansas
Hypothetical
60% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Kansas State Offense · SP+ 2026: 33.5, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Kansas Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.4, 65th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Kansas State Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.7, 67th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Kansas Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.3, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Kansas State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Kansas Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Kansas State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 207.8 pts, 64th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Kansas Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 197.0 pts, 56th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Kansas State Experience · returning production 2026: 71% returning, 85th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Kansas Experience · returning production 2026: 18% returning, 25th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Kansas State | 2026 Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2782nd percentile | 0.2580th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0842nd percentile | −0.0377th percentile |
| Points per game | 35.674th percentile5 games | 33.664th percentile5 games |
| per game | 19.272nd percentile5 games | 21.861st percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 68th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 77th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 54th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 64th percentile
Campus distance
75 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Kansas State OL vs 2026 Kansas DL | 305.2 lbs | 282.6 lbs |
| 2026 Kansas OL vs 2026 Kansas State DL | 310.3 lbs | 279.0 lbs |
2026 Kansas State line yards 3.33 · 2026 Kansas stuff rate 27.6%
2026 Kansas line yards 3.58 · 2026 Kansas State stuff rate 21.4%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Kansas State leads 22–4 since 2000
Kansas State has won 17 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Kansas State 42–17 Kansas | Memorial Stadium · Kansas home |
| 2024 | Kansas State 29–27 Kansas | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
| 2023 | Kansas State 31–27 Kansas | Memorial Stadium · Kansas home |
| 2022 | Kansas State 47–27 Kansas | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
| 2021 | Kansas State 35–10 Kansas | Memorial Stadium · Kansas home |
| 2020 | Kansas State 55–14 Kansas | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
| 2019 | Kansas State 38–10 Kansas | Memorial Stadium · Kansas home |
| 2018 | Kansas State 21–17 Kansas | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
| 2017 | Kansas State 30–20 Kansas | Memorial Stadium · Kansas home |
| 2016 | Kansas State 34–19 Kansas | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
| 2015 | Kansas State 45–14 Kansas | Memorial Stadium · Kansas home |
| 2014 | Kansas State 51–13 Kansas | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
| 2013 | Kansas State 31–10 Kansas | Memorial Stadium · Kansas home |
| 2012 | Kansas State 56–16 Kansas | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
| 2011 | Kansas State 59–21 Kansas | Memorial Stadium · Kansas home |
| 2010 | Kansas State 59–7 Kansas | Memorial Stadium · Kansas home |
| 2009 | Kansas State 17–10 Kansas | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
| 2008 | Kansas State 21–52 Kansas | Memorial Stadium · Kansas home |
| 2007 | Kansas State 24–30 Kansas | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
| 2006 | Kansas State 20–39 Kansas | Memorial Stadium · Kansas home |
| 2005 | Kansas State 12–3 Kansas | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
| 2004 | Kansas State 28–31 Kansas | Memorial Stadium · Kansas home |
| 2003 | Kansas State 42–6 Kansas | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
| 2002 | Kansas State 64–0 Kansas | Memorial Stadium · Kansas home |
| 2001 | Kansas State 40–6 Kansas | Bill Snyder Family Stadium · Kansas State home |
| 2000 | Kansas State 52–13 Kansas | Kansas home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Collin Klein (First season as Kansas State's head coach)
OC
- Sean Gleeson
career average +24.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 65th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.2 plays a game, 77th percentile)
DC
- Jordan Peterson
career average +24.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3-high safety / odd stack (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Lance Leipold
OC
- Andy Kotelnicki
- Jim Zebrowski
- Matt Lubick (co-OC)
career average +31.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 26th percentile of 2026 FBS; 73.0 plays a game, 88th percentile)
DC
- D. K. McDonald
career average +27.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Kansas at Kansas State · October 17, 2026
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