2026 James Madison vs 2026 Marshall
Hypothetical
88% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 James Madison Offense · SP+ 2026: 31.1, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Marshall Offense · SP+ 2026: 24.4, 34th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 James Madison Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.8, 72nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Marshall Defense · SP+ 2026: 37.5, 4th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 James Madison Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Marshall Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 James Madison Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 185.6 pts, 42nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Marshall Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 162.1 pts, 11th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 James Madison Experience · returning production 2026: 8% returning, 10th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Marshall Experience · returning production 2026: 99% returning, 99th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 James Madison | 2026 Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2985th percentile | 0.1138th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0582nd percentile | 0.312nd percentile |
| Points per game | 41.893rd percentile6 games | 22.020th percentile6 games |
| per game | 15.089th percentile6 games | 33.78th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 21st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 72nd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 13th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 14th percentile
Campus distance
190 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 James Madison OL vs 2026 Marshall DL | 309.2 lbs | 276.4 lbs |
| 2026 Marshall OL vs 2026 James Madison DL | 302.2 lbs | 274.4 lbs |
2026 James Madison line yards 3.30 · 2026 Marshall stuff rate 15.7%
2026 Marshall line yards 3.17 · 2026 James Madison stuff rate 17.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · James Madison leads 3–2 since 2000
James Madison has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | James Madison 45–17 Marshall | Bridgeforth Stadium · James Madison home |
| 2025 | James Madison 35–23 Marshall | Joan C. Edwards Stadium · Marshall home |
| 2024 | James Madison 33–35 Marshall | Bridgeforth Stadium · James Madison home |
| 2023 | James Madison 20–9 Marshall | Joan C. Edwards Stadium · Marshall home |
| 2022 | James Madison 12–26 Marshall | Bridgeforth Stadium · James Madison home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Billy Napier
OC
- Cam Aiken
no career track record on file
Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 32nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.8 plays a game, 64th percentile)
DC
- Robert Bala
career average +22.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Tony Gibson
OC
- Rod Smith
career average +30.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 71st percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.5 plays a game, 79th percentile)
DC
- Brad Lambert
career average +28.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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