2026 Jacksonville State vs 2026 Florida International
Hypothetical
63% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Jacksonville State Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.2, 43rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida International Offense · SP+ 2026: 16.9, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Jacksonville State Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.4, 35th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida International Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.1, 70th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Jacksonville State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida International Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Jacksonville State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 183.4 pts, 38th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Florida International Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 176.6 pts, 26th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Jacksonville State Experience · returning production 2026: 50% returning, 59th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Florida International Experience · returning production 2026: 32% returning, 37th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Jacksonville State | 2026 Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1857th percentile | −0.019th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0555th percentile | −0.0790th percentile |
| Points per game | 27.341st percentile6 games | 18.812th percentile5 games |
| per game | 22.555th percentile6 games | 12.296th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 15th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 38th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 27th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 31st percentile
Campus distance
645 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Jacksonville State OL vs 2026 Florida International DL | 297.0 lbs | 266.0 lbs |
| 2026 Florida International OL vs 2026 Jacksonville State DL | 303.4 lbs | 270.3 lbs |
2026 Jacksonville State line yards 3.01 · 2026 Florida International stuff rate 20.0%
2026 Florida International line yards 2.53 · 2026 Jacksonville State stuff rate 16.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Jacksonville State leads 3–1 since 2000
Florida International has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Jacksonville State 21–27 Florida International | Pitbull Stadium · Florida International home |
| 2024 | Jacksonville State 34–31 Florida International | AmFirst Stadium · Jacksonville State home |
| 2023 | Jacksonville State 41–16 Florida International | FIU Stadium · Florida International home |
| 2020 | Jacksonville State 19–10 Florida International | FIU Stadium · Florida International home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Charles Kelly
OC
- Taylor Housewright
no career track record on file
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 50th percentile of 2026 FBS; 63.8 plays a game, 23rd percentile)
DC
- Brian Williams
career average +25.3 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Willie Simmons
OC: no staff data on file
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 69th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.4 plays a game, 85th percentile)
DC: no staff data on file
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Florida International at Jacksonville State · October 13, 2026
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