2026 Iowa vs 2026 Northern Illinois

Hypothetical

Iowa by 27.8

97% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

IowaPreseason baseline +17.1In-season results +1.2

Northern IllinoisIn-season results −6.8Preseason baseline −5.3

Northern Illinois home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Iowa	2026 Northern Illinois
Offensive / play	0.1857th percentile	−0.121st percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0274th percentile	0.2012th percentile
Points per game	31.055th percentile6 games	12.40th percentile5 games
per game	14.591st percentile6 games	34.66th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Iowa2026 Northern Illinois

Momentum

Iowa→ steady (−6 pctl over 3 seasons)

Northern Illinois↘ falling (−34 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Iowa

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 75th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 82nd percentile

Matching its talent (+7)

2026 Northern Illinois

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 32nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 4th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−29)

Campus distance

145 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Iowa OL vs 2026 Northern Illinois DL	302.4 lbs	270.1 lbs
2026 Northern Illinois OL vs 2026 Iowa DL	299.6 lbs	275.0 lbs

2026 Iowa line yards 3.44 · 2026 Northern Illinois stuff rate 14.4%

2026 Northern Illinois line yards 2.78 · 2026 Iowa stuff rate 19.2%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Iowa leads 5–1 since 2000

Iowa has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Iowa 40–0 Northern Illinois	Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home
2018	Iowa 33–7 Northern Illinois	Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home
2013	Iowa 27–30 Northern Illinois	Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home
2012	Iowa 18–17 Northern Illinois	Neutral site
2007	Iowa 16–3 Northern Illinois	Northern Illinois home
2006	Iowa 24–14 Northern Illinois	Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home

Coaching & program context

2026 Iowa

Kirk Ferentz

Tim Lester

career average +29.7 SP+ offense

Scheme: West Coast (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 64th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.5 plays a game, 17th percentile)

Phil Parker

career average +15.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Northern Illinois

Rob Harley (First season as Northern Illinois's head coach)

Quinn Sanders
Tony Petersen (co-OC)

career average +25.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 88th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.0 plays a game, 14th percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.