2026 Iowa vs 2026 Michigan
Hypothetical
55% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Iowa Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.3, 64th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.6, 51st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa Defense · SP+ 2026: 16.7, 90th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.4, 96th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4, 95th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Michigan Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 228.6 pts, 82nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Michigan Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 270.1 pts, 92nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Iowa Experience · returning production 2026: 34% returning, 39th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Michigan Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning, 84th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Iowa | 2026 Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1857th percentile | 0.0932nd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0274th percentile | −0.1196th percentile |
| Points per game | 31.055th percentile6 games | 23.026th percentile5 games |
| per game | 14.591st percentile6 games | 15.886th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 75th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 82nd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 91st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 84th percentile
Campus distance
405 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Iowa OL vs 2026 Michigan DL | 302.4 lbs | 277.2 lbs |
| 2026 Michigan OL vs 2026 Iowa DL | 307.7 lbs | 275.0 lbs |
2026 Iowa line yards 3.44 · 2026 Michigan stuff rate 22.4%
2026 Michigan line yards 3.16 · 2026 Iowa stuff rate 19.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Michigan leads 9–8 since 2000
Iowa has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Iowa 20–19 Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2023 | Iowa 0–26 Michigan | Neutral site |
| 2022 | Iowa 14–27 Michigan | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2021 | Iowa 3–42 Michigan | Neutral site |
| 2019 | Iowa 3–10 Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2016 | Iowa 14–13 Michigan | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2013 | Iowa 24–21 Michigan | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2012 | Iowa 17–42 Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2011 | Iowa 24–16 Michigan | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2010 | Iowa 38–28 Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2009 | Iowa 30–28 Michigan | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2006 | Iowa 6–20 Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2005 | Iowa 20–23 Michigan | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2004 | Iowa 17–30 Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2003 | Iowa 30–27 Michigan | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2002 | Iowa 34–9 Michigan | Michigan Stadium · Michigan home |
| 2001 | Iowa 26–32 Michigan | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Kirk Ferentz
OC
- Tim Lester
career average +29.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: West Coast (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 64th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.5 plays a game, 17th percentile)
DC
- Phil Parker
career average +15.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Kyle Whittingham (First season as Michigan's head coach)
OC
- Jason Beck
career average +29.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 20th percentile of 2026 FBS; 59.4 plays a game, 6th percentile)
DC
- Jay Hill
career average +22.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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