2026 Iowa vs 2026 Iowa State
Hypothetical
66% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Iowa Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.3, 64th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa State Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.4, 39th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa Defense · SP+ 2026: 16.7, 90th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa State Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.6, 58th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4, 95th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 228.6 pts, 82nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Iowa State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 203.3 pts, 61st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Iowa Experience · returning production 2026: 34% returning, 39th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Iowa State Experience · returning production 2026: 2% returning, 4th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Iowa | 2026 Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1857th percentile | 0.1343rd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0274th percentile | 0.0842nd percentile |
| Points per game | 31.055th percentile6 games | 29.751st percentile6 games |
| per game | 14.591st percentile6 games | 21.761st percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 75th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 82nd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 63rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 53rd percentile
Campus distance
110 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Iowa OL vs 2026 Iowa State DL | 302.4 lbs | 269.9 lbs |
| 2026 Iowa State OL vs 2026 Iowa DL | 306.4 lbs | 275.0 lbs |
2026 Iowa line yards 3.44 · 2026 Iowa State stuff rate 18.8%
2026 Iowa State line yards 3.01 · 2026 Iowa stuff rate 19.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Iowa leads 15–11 since 2000
Iowa has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Iowa 16–13 Iowa State | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2025 | Iowa 13–16 Iowa State | Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home |
| 2024 | Iowa 19–20 Iowa State | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2023 | Iowa 20–13 Iowa State | Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home |
| 2022 | Iowa 7–10 Iowa State | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2021 | Iowa 27–17 Iowa State | Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home |
| 2019 | Iowa 18–17 Iowa State | Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home |
| 2018 | Iowa 13–3 Iowa State | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2017 | Iowa 44–41 Iowa State | Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home |
| 2016 | Iowa 42–3 Iowa State | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2015 | Iowa 31–17 Iowa State | Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home |
| 2014 | Iowa 17–20 Iowa State | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2013 | Iowa 27–21 Iowa State | Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home |
| 2012 | Iowa 6–9 Iowa State | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2011 | Iowa 41–44 Iowa State | Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home |
| 2010 | Iowa 35–7 Iowa State | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2009 | Iowa 35–3 Iowa State | Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home |
| 2008 | Iowa 17–5 Iowa State | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2007 | Iowa 13–15 Iowa State | Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home |
| 2006 | Iowa 27–17 Iowa State | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2005 | Iowa 3–23 Iowa State | Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home |
| 2004 | Iowa 17–10 Iowa State | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2003 | Iowa 40–21 Iowa State | Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home |
| 2002 | Iowa 31–36 Iowa State | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2001 | Iowa 14–17 Iowa State | Jack Trice Stadium · Iowa State home |
| 2000 | Iowa 14–24 Iowa State | Iowa home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Kirk Ferentz
OC
- Tim Lester
career average +29.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: West Coast (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 64th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.5 plays a game, 17th percentile)
DC
- Phil Parker
career average +15.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Jimmy Rogers (First season as Iowa State's head coach)
OC
- Tyler Roehl
no career track record on file
Scheme: Pro-style (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 41% of its run–pass plays, 24th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.8 plays a game, 20th percentile)
DC
- Jesse Bobbit
career average +20.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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