2026 Indiana vs 2026 Ohio State
Hypothetical
71% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Indiana Offense · SP+ 2026: 39.3, 96th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Ohio State Offense · SP+ 2026: 41.3, 100th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Indiana Defense · SP+ 2026: 12.8, 98th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Ohio State Defense · SP+ 2026: 11.7, 100th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Indiana Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Ohio State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Indiana Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.5 pts, 80th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Ohio State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 301.2 pts, 98th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Indiana Experience · returning production 2026: 17% returning, 24th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Ohio State Experience · returning production 2026: 68% returning, 81st percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Indiana | 2026 Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.4199th percentile | 0.3190th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0685th percentile | −0.1093rd percentile |
| Points per game | 40.291st percentile6 games | 42.796th percentile6 games |
| per game | 11.897th percentile6 games | 13.295th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 61st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 97th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 97th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 100th percentile
Campus distance
195 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Indiana OL vs 2026 Ohio State DL | 307.0 lbs | 280.2 lbs |
| 2026 Ohio State OL vs 2026 Indiana DL | 309.2 lbs | 272.3 lbs |
2026 Indiana line yards 3.50 · 2026 Ohio State stuff rate 19.8%
2026 Ohio State line yards 3.15 · 2026 Indiana stuff rate 25.1%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Ohio State leads 22–1 since 2000
Indiana has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana 13–10 Ohio State | Neutral site |
| 2024 | Indiana 15–38 Ohio State | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2023 | Indiana 3–23 Ohio State | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2022 | Indiana 14–56 Ohio State | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2021 | Indiana 7–54 Ohio State | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2020 | Indiana 35–42 Ohio State | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2019 | Indiana 10–51 Ohio State | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2018 | Indiana 26–49 Ohio State | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2017 | Indiana 21–49 Ohio State | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2016 | Indiana 17–38 Ohio State | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2015 | Indiana 27–34 Ohio State | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2014 | Indiana 27–42 Ohio State | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2013 | Indiana 14–42 Ohio State | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2012 | Indiana 49–52 Ohio State | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2011 | Indiana 20–34 Ohio State | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2010 | Indiana 10–38 Ohio State | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2009 | Indiana 14–33 Ohio State | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2006 | Indiana 3–44 Ohio State | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2005 | Indiana 10–41 Ohio State | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2004 | Indiana 7–30 Ohio State | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2003 | Indiana 6–35 Ohio State | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2002 | Indiana 17–45 Ohio State | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2001 | Indiana 14–27 Ohio State | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Curt Cignetti
OC
- Mike Shanahan
- Tino Sunseri (co-OC)
career average +35.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 39% of its run–pass plays, 16th percentile of 2026 FBS; 60.5 plays a game, 9th percentile)
DC
- Bryant Haines
career average +18.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Ryan Day
OC
- Arthur Smith
- Keenan Bailey (co-OC)
career average +37.6 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 38th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.2 plays a game, 66th percentile)
DC
- Matt Patricia
- Tim Walton (co-DC)
career average +7.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Ohio State at Indiana · October 17, 2026
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