2026 Indiana vs 2026 Northwestern
Hypothetical
72% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Indiana Offense · SP+ 2026: 39.3, 96th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Northwestern Offense · SP+ 2026: 35.1, 87th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Indiana Defense · SP+ 2026: 12.8, 98th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Northwestern Defense · SP+ 2026: 19.7, 81st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Indiana Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Northwestern Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Indiana Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.5 pts, 80th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Northwestern Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 204.9 pts, 63rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Indiana Experience · returning production 2026: 17% returning, 24th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Northwestern Experience · returning production 2026: 89% returning, 95th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Indiana | 2026 Northwestern |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.4199th percentile | 0.3395th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0685th percentile | 0.0648th percentile |
| Points per game | 40.291st percentile6 games | 35.474th percentile5 games |
| per game | 11.897th percentile6 games | 16.284th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 61st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 97th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 55th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 88th percentile
Campus distance
210 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Indiana OL vs 2026 Northwestern DL | 307.0 lbs | 273.9 lbs |
| 2026 Northwestern OL vs 2026 Indiana DL | 305.4 lbs | 272.3 lbs |
2026 Indiana line yards 3.50 · 2026 Northwestern stuff rate 18.6%
2026 Northwestern line yards 3.05 · 2026 Indiana stuff rate 25.1%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Northwestern leads 10–5 since 2000
Indiana has won 3 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Indiana 29–23 Northwestern | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2024 | Indiana 41–24 Northwestern | Neutral site |
| 2019 | Indiana 34–3 Northwestern | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2016 | Indiana 14–24 Northwestern | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2012 | Indiana 29–44 Northwestern | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2011 | Indiana 38–59 Northwestern | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2010 | Indiana 17–20 Northwestern | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2009 | Indiana 28–29 Northwestern | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2008 | Indiana 21–19 Northwestern | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2007 | Indiana 28–31 Northwestern | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2004 | Indiana 24–31 Northwestern | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2003 | Indiana 31–37 Northwestern | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2002 | Indiana 37–41 Northwestern | Ryan Field · Northwestern home |
| 2001 | Indiana 56–21 Northwestern | Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home |
| 2000 | Indiana 33–52 Northwestern | Northwestern home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Curt Cignetti
OC
- Mike Shanahan
- Tino Sunseri (co-OC)
career average +35.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 39% of its run–pass plays, 16th percentile of 2026 FBS; 60.5 plays a game, 9th percentile)
DC
- Bryant Haines
career average +18.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- David Braun
OC
- Chip Kelly
career average +39.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Multiple spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 9th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.8 plays a game, 18th percentile)
DC
- Tim McGarigle
career average +22.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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