2026 Indiana vs 2026 North Texas

Hypothetical

Indiana by 18.7

90% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

IndianaPreseason baseline +24.5In-season results +2.0

North TexasPreseason baseline +3.0In-season results +2.3

North Texas home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Indiana	2026 North Texas
Offensive / play	0.4199th percentile	0.3088th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0685th percentile	0.0842nd percentile
Points per game	40.291st percentile6 games	42.295th percentile6 games
per game	11.897th percentile6 games	29.217th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Indiana2026 North Texas

Momentum

Indiana→ steady (+5 pctl over 3 seasons)

North Texas↗ rising (+11 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Indiana

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 61st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 97th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+36)

2026 North Texas

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 24th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 45th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+22)

Campus distance

720 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Indiana OL vs 2026 North Texas DL	307.0 lbs	272.3 lbs
2026 North Texas OL vs 2026 Indiana DL	308.3 lbs	272.3 lbs

2026 Indiana line yards 3.50 · 2026 North Texas stuff rate 18.5%

2026 North Texas line yards 3.12 · 2026 Indiana stuff rate 25.1%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Indiana leads 2–1 since 2000

Indiana has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Indiana 52–16 North Texas	Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home
2014	Indiana 49–24 North Texas	Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Indiana home
2011	Indiana 21–24 North Texas	DATCU Stadium · North Texas home

Coaching & program context

2026 Indiana

Curt Cignetti

Mike Shanahan
Tino Sunseri (co-OC)

career average +35.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 39% of its run–pass plays, 16th percentile of 2026 FBS; 60.5 plays a game, 9th percentile)

Bryant Haines

career average +18.4 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 North Texas

Neal Brown (First season as North Texas's head coach)

OC: no staff data on file

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 78th percentile of 2026 FBS; 74.7 plays a game, 92nd percentile)

Bradley Dale Peveto (co-DC)
Matt Powledge

career average +30.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.