2026 Idaho State vs 2026 Utah State
Hypothetical
No prediction
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Idaho State Offense · SP+ 2026: not an FBS team that season (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Utah State Offense · SP+ 2026: 17.4, 15th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Idaho State Defense · SP+ 2026: not an FBS team that season (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Utah State Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.9, 51st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Idaho State Special teams · SP+ 2026: not an FBS team that season (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Utah State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4, 3rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Idaho State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 48.6 pts, 1st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Utah State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 177.6 pts, 30th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Idaho State Experience · returning production 2026: not an FBS team that season (2026 roster)
- 2026 Utah State Experience · returning production 2026: 65% returning, 77th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Idaho State: not an team that season
- 2026 Idaho State: fewer than three dimensions, so no shape is drawn
Offensive production relative to that season’s FBS field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Idaho State | 2026 Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | —not an FBS team that season | −0.084th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | —not an FBS team that season | 0.0555th percentile |
| Points per game | 29.0not an FBS team that season1 game | 14.51st percentile6 games |
| per game | 17.0not an FBS team that season1 game | 23.548th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
No SP+ result for 2026 yet, so there is nothing to weigh talent against.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 25th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 24th percentile
Campus distance
No campus location on file for Idaho State.
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Idaho State OL vs 2026 Utah State DL | — | 290.0 lbs |
| 2026 Utah State OL vs 2026 Idaho State DL | 296.7 lbs | — |
2026 Idaho State line yards — · 2026 Utah State stuff rate 20.0%
2026 Utah State line yards 2.99 · 2026 Idaho State stuff rate —
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Utah State leads 6–2 since 2000
Idaho State has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Idaho State 29–17 Utah State | Maverik Stadium · Utah State home |
| 2023 | Idaho State 28–78 Utah State | Maverik Stadium · Utah State home |
| 2017 | Idaho State 13–51 Utah State | Maverik Stadium · Utah State home |
| 2014 | Idaho State 20–40 Utah State | Maverik Stadium · Utah State home |
| 2010 | Idaho State 17–38 Utah State | Maverik Stadium · Utah State home |
| 2002 | Idaho State 33–38 Utah State | Maverik Stadium · Utah State home |
| 2001 | Idaho State 27–28 Utah State | Utah State home |
| 2000 | Idaho State 27–24 Utah State | Utah State home |
Coaching & program context
HC: no staff data on file
OC: no staff data on file
DC: no staff data on file
HC
- Bronco Mendenhall
OC
- Robert Anae
career average +30.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 66th percentile of 2026 FBS; 63.8 plays a game, 23rd percentile)
DC
- Nick Howell
career average +32.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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