2026 Houston vs 2026 Oregon State
Hypothetical
67% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Houston Offense · SP+ 2026: 36.6, 90th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oregon State Offense · SP+ 2026: 31.6, 72nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Houston Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.5, 74th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oregon State Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.0, 62nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Houston Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oregon State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4, 3rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Houston Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 218.8 pts, 73rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Oregon State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 176.8 pts, 28th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Houston Experience · returning production 2026: 81% returning, 93rd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Oregon State Experience · returning production 2026: 58% returning, 67th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Houston | 2026 Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3697th percentile | 0.3293rd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0936th percentile | 0.0458th percentile |
| Points per game | 40.090th percentile6 games | 41.893rd percentile6 games |
| per game | 19.273rd percentile6 games | 22.058th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 62nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 86th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 45th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 63rd percentile
Campus distance
1835 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Houston OL vs 2026 Oregon State DL | 306.2 lbs | 298.4 lbs |
| 2026 Oregon State OL vs 2026 Houston DL | 304.6 lbs | 294.1 lbs |
2026 Houston line yards 3.70 · 2026 Oregon State stuff rate 15.8%
2026 Oregon State line yards 3.36 · 2026 Houston stuff rate 22.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Houston leads 2–0 since 2000
Houston has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Houston 33–20 Oregon State | TDECU Stadium · Houston home |
| 2025 | Houston 27–24 Oregon State | Reser Stadium · Oregon State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Willie Fritz
OC
- Slade Nagle
career average +29.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 41% of its run–pass plays, 23rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.2 plays a game, 84th percentile)
DC
- Austin Armstrong
career average +23.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
HC
- JaMarcus Shephard (First season as Oregon State's head coach)
OC
- Mitch Dahlen
- Ryan Wallace (co-OC)
no career track record on file
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 59% of its run–pass plays, 99th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.8 plays a game, 85th percentile)
DC
- Cort Dennison (co-DC)
- Mike MacIntyre
career average +27.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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