Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–2
vs
Washington State
1–5
6:00 PM ET3:00 PM PTReser StadiumCorvallis, OR
Mostly cloudy65°FNW 3 mphGusts 8 mphPrecip 6%
At kickoff · 3:00 PM PT · Updated 11:41 AM PT · National Weather Service
Corvallis · local time (PT)
Kickoff hour
Mostly cloudy65°FNW 3 mphGusts 8 mphPrecip 6%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
80%
Oregon State win probability
Washington State 20%
Oregon State by 12.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.6 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Oregon State's case
Oregon State's defense is in the 58th percentile for allowed per play this season. Washington State's offense is in the 3rd percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Washington State's answer
In every matchup we can rate this season, the Washington State unit ranks well below the Oregon State unit it faces.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives Oregon State a 80% chance to win and predicts Oregon State by 12.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.6 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Braden Atkinson · 77% of charted pass attempts
161 of 163 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 126 short · 35 deep · 2 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (43%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 11.0 over 47 attempts with a result.
The Oregon State offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
165/234 · 71% season
Last game
San Diego State · Oct 10, 2026: 29/38, 409 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
San Diego State · Oct 10, 2026: 9 carries, 55 yds, 1 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
San Diego State · Oct 10, 2026: 10 rec, 191 yds, 3 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden AtkinsonQB | 6 | 165 / 234 | 2,236 | 9.6 | 21 | 2 |
| Maalik MurphyQB | 2 | 11 / 12 | 81 | 6.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Brady JonesQB | 2 | 1 / 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 | 0 |
| AJ NewberryRB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 1 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden PinnickQB | 6 | 110 / 178 | 952 | 5.3 | 3 | 5 |
1 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Oregon State's line averages 304.6 lbs against Washington State's 273.6 lbs front — an edge of 31.0 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon State OLOregon State OL vs Washington State DL | 304.6 lbs | 273.6 lbs |
| Washington State OLWashington State OL vs Oregon State DL | 301.3 lbs | 298.4 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Oregon State: solid line, circles · Washington State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 52 recorded plays
W 66–14
62%
Success rate
0.38
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 60 recorded plays
W 56–26
73%
Success rate
0.50
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 52 recorded plays
W 33–7
56%
Success rate
0.37
PPA / play
JaMarcus Shephard
First season as Oregon State's head coach · no career rating on file
Mitch Dahlen
no career rating on file
Ryan Wallace
Co-offensive coordinator · no career rating on file
Cort Dennison
Co-defensive coordinator · career +27.4 SP+ defense
Mike MacIntyre
career +27.4 SP+ defense
Photo: University of Colorado Boulder Alumni Association, CC BY-SA 2.0
Kirby Moore
First season as Washington State's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: Bsuorangecrush (talk), Public domain
Matt Miller
career +29.1 SP+ offense
Trent Bray
career +20.0 SP+ defense
2025 · Washington State 32, Oregon State 8
Gesa Field
2025 · Oregon State 10, Washington State 7
Reser Stadium
2024 · Oregon State 41, Washington State 38
Reser Stadium
2023 · Washington State 38, Oregon State 35
Gesa Field
2022 · Oregon State 24, Washington State 10
Reser Stadium
2021 · Washington State 31, Oregon State 24
Gesa Field
2020 · Washington State 38, Oregon State 28
Reser Stadium
2019 · Washington State 54, Oregon State 53
Gesa Field
2018 · Washington State 56, Oregon State 37
Reser Stadium
2017 · Washington State 52, Oregon State 23
Gesa Field
2016 · Washington State 35, Oregon State 31
Reser Stadium
2015 · Washington State 52, Oregon State 31
Gesa Field
2014 · Washington State 39, Oregon State 32
Reser Stadium
2013 · Oregon State 52, Washington State 24
Gesa Field
2012 · Oregon State 19, Washington State 6
Reser Stadium
2011 · Oregon State 44, Washington State 21
2010 · Washington State 31, Oregon State 14
Reser Stadium
2009 · Oregon State 42, Washington State 10
Gesa Field
2008 · Oregon State 66, Washington State 13
Reser Stadium
2007 · Oregon State 52, Washington State 17
Gesa Field
2006 · Washington State 13, Oregon State 6
Reser Stadium
2005 · Oregon State 44, Washington State 33
Reser Stadium
2004 · Oregon State 38, Washington State 19
Reser Stadium
2003 · Washington State 36, Oregon State 30
Gesa Field
2001 · Washington State 34, Oregon State 27
Gesa Field
2000 · Oregon State 38, Washington State 9
Evidence window: 2026 season to date