2026 Georgia vs 2026 Alabama
Hypothetical
59% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Georgia Offense · SP+ 2026: 40.5, 98th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Alabama Offense · SP+ 2026: 40.0, 97th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Georgia Defense · SP+ 2026: 12.7, 99th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Alabama Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.1, 88th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Georgia Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.5, 99th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Alabama Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Georgia Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 292.0 pts, 96th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Alabama Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 303.8 pts, 99th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Georgia Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning, 82nd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Alabama Experience · returning production 2026: 26% returning, 33rd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Georgia | 2026 Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.4099th percentile | 0.3395th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0582nd percentile | −0.0685th percentile |
| Points per game | 46.299th percentile6 games | 44.299th percentile6 games |
| per game | 14.093rd percentile6 games | 20.767th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 99th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 99th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 99th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 95th percentile
Campus distance
245 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Georgia OL vs 2026 Alabama DL | 315.5 lbs | 292.1 lbs |
| 2026 Alabama OL vs 2026 Georgia DL | 309.5 lbs | 297.4 lbs |
2026 Georgia line yards 3.44 · 2026 Alabama stuff rate 25.0%
2026 Alabama line yards 3.23 · 2026 Georgia stuff rate 18.9%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Alabama leads 10–6 since 2000
Georgia has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Georgia 20–17 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2025 | Georgia 28–7 Alabama | Neutral site |
| 2025 | Georgia 21–24 Alabama | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2024 | Georgia 34–41 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2023 | Georgia 24–27 Alabama | Neutral site |
| 2021bowl/playoff | Georgia 33–18 Alabama | Neutral site |
| 2021 | Georgia 24–41 Alabama | Neutral site |
| 2020 | Georgia 24–41 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2018 | Georgia 28–35 Alabama | Neutral site |
| 2017bowl/playoff | Georgia 23–26 Alabama | Neutral site |
| 2015 | Georgia 10–38 Alabama | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2012 | Georgia 28–32 Alabama | Neutral site |
| 2008 | Georgia 30–41 Alabama | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2007 | Georgia 26–23 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2003 | Georgia 37–23 Alabama | Sanford Stadium · Georgia home |
| 2002 | Georgia 27–25 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Kirby Smart
OC
- Mike Bobo
career average +40.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 39th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.2 plays a game, 15th percentile)
DC
- Glenn Schumann
- Travaris Robinson (co-DC)
career average +14.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Kalen DeBoer
OC
- Ryan Grubb
career average +34.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Run and Gun (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 33rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.2 plays a game, 33rd percentile)
DC
- Kane Wommack
- Maurice Linguist (co-DC)
career average +21.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5, Swarm (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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