2026 Georgia Tech vs 2026 Duke
Hypothetical
59% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Georgia Tech Offense · SP+ 2026: 27.9, 55th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Duke Offense · SP+ 2026: 31.5, 71st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Georgia Tech Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.7, 42nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Duke Defense · SP+ 2026: 23.4, 64th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Georgia Tech Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Duke Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Georgia Tech Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 216.7 pts, 71st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Duke Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 189.3 pts, 49th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Georgia Tech Experience · returning production 2026: 13% returning, 13th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Duke Experience · returning production 2026: 17% returning, 24th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Georgia Tech | 2026 Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1753rd percentile | 0.2985th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1815th percentile | 0.0166th percentile |
| Points per game | 27.240th percentile5 games | 34.066th percentile5 games |
| per game | 25.834th percentile5 games | 14.491st percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 71st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 54th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 60th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 68th percentile
Campus distance
345 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Georgia Tech OL vs 2026 Duke DL | 313.2 lbs | 264.7 lbs |
| 2026 Duke OL vs 2026 Georgia Tech DL | 306.8 lbs | 280.6 lbs |
2026 Georgia Tech line yards 2.95 · 2026 Duke stuff rate 19.8%
2026 Duke line yards 3.30 · 2026 Georgia Tech stuff rate 16.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Georgia Tech leads 20–6 since 2000
Georgia Tech has won 6 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Georgia Tech 28–25 Duke | Bobby Dodd Stadium · Georgia Tech home |
| 2025 | Georgia Tech 27–18 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2024 | Georgia Tech 24–14 Duke | Bobby Dodd Stadium · Georgia Tech home |
| 2022 | Georgia Tech 23–20 Duke | Bobby Dodd Stadium · Georgia Tech home |
| 2021 | Georgia Tech 31–27 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2020 | Georgia Tech 56–33 Duke | Bobby Dodd Stadium · Georgia Tech home |
| 2019 | Georgia Tech 23–41 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2018 | Georgia Tech 14–28 Duke | Bobby Dodd Stadium · Georgia Tech home |
| 2017 | Georgia Tech 20–43 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2016 | Georgia Tech 38–35 Duke | Bobby Dodd Stadium · Georgia Tech home |
| 2015 | Georgia Tech 20–34 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2014 | Georgia Tech 25–31 Duke | Bobby Dodd Stadium · Georgia Tech home |
| 2013 | Georgia Tech 38–14 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2012 | Georgia Tech 42–24 Duke | Bobby Dodd Stadium · Georgia Tech home |
| 2011 | Georgia Tech 38–31 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2010 | Georgia Tech 30–20 Duke | Bobby Dodd Stadium · Georgia Tech home |
| 2009 | Georgia Tech 49–10 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2008 | Georgia Tech 27–0 Duke | Bobby Dodd Stadium · Georgia Tech home |
| 2007 | Georgia Tech 41–24 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2006 | Georgia Tech 49–21 Duke | Bobby Dodd Stadium · Georgia Tech home |
| 2005 | Georgia Tech 35–10 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2004 | Georgia Tech 24–7 Duke | Bobby Dodd Stadium · Georgia Tech home |
| 2003 | Georgia Tech 17–41 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2002 | Georgia Tech 17–2 Duke | Bobby Dodd Stadium · Georgia Tech home |
| 2001 | Georgia Tech 37–10 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2000 | Georgia Tech 45–10 Duke | Georgia Tech home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Brent Key
OC
- Chris Weinke (co-OC)
- George Godsey
career average +31.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 73rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 63.4 plays a game, 21st percentile)
DC
- Jason Semore
career average +30.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Manny Diaz
OC
- Jonathan Brewer
career average +31.9 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 28th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.8 plays a game, 81st percentile)
DC
- Jonathan Patke
career average +28.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
Share this matchup
Pasting the link anywhere unfurls the graphic automatically.
