2026 Fresno State vs 2026 San José State
Hypothetical
77% to win
High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Fresno State Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.4, 47th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 San José State Offense · SP+ 2026: 16.0, 9th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Fresno State Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.9, 66th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 San José State Defense · SP+ 2026: 27.9, 39th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Fresno State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 San José State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Fresno State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 189.4 pts, 50th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 San José State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 158.7 pts, 7th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Fresno State Experience · returning production 2026: 38% returning, 47th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 San José State Experience · returning production 2026: 4% returning, 6th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Fresno State | 2026 San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1446th percentile | 0.1035th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0262nd percentile | 0.0555th percentile |
| Points per game | 28.347th percentile6 games | 21.018th percentile6 games |
| per game | 20.069th percentile6 games | 23.548th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 37th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 58th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 15th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 18th percentile
Campus distance
120 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Fresno State OL vs 2026 San José State DL | 305.0 lbs | 269.6 lbs |
| 2026 San José State OL vs 2026 Fresno State DL | 287.6 lbs | 268.9 lbs |
2026 Fresno State line yards 2.58 · 2026 San José State stuff rate 15.4%
2026 San José State line yards 3.01 · 2026 Fresno State stuff rate 17.8%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Fresno State leads 18–7 since 2000
Fresno State has won 3 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Fresno State 26–10 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2025 | Fresno State 41–14 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2024 | Fresno State 33–10 San José State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2023 | Fresno State 18–42 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2022 | Fresno State 17–10 San José State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2021 | Fresno State 40–9 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2019 | Fresno State 16–17 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2018 | Fresno State 31–13 San José State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2017 | Fresno State 27–10 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2016 | Fresno State 14–16 San José State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2015 | Fresno State 23–49 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2014 | Fresno State 38–24 San José State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2013 | Fresno State 52–62 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2011 | Fresno State 24–27 San José State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2010 | Fresno State 33–18 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2009 | Fresno State 41–21 San José State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2008 | Fresno State 24–10 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2007 | Fresno State 30–0 San José State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2006 | Fresno State 14–24 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2005 | Fresno State 45–7 San José State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2004 | Fresno State 62–28 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2003 | Fresno State 41–7 San José State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2002 | Fresno State 19–16 San José State | CEFCU Stadium · San José State home |
| 2001 | Fresno State 40–21 San José State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2000 | Fresno State 37–6 San José State | San José State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Matt Entz
OC
- Josh Davis
career average +23.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pistol (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 67th percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.3 plays a game, 10th percentile)
DC
- Adam Breske (co-DC)
- Nick Benedetto
career average +27.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Ken Niumatalolo
OC: no staff data on file
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 85th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.5 plays a game, 59th percentile)
DC: no staff data on file
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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