2026 Florida Atlantic vs 2026 Navy

Hypothetical

Navy by 2.3

57% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Florida AtlanticPreseason baseline −6.0In-season results +1.2

NavyPreseason baseline −4.3In-season results −0.6

Navy home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Florida Atlantic	2026 Navy
Offensive / play	0.1857th percentile	0.2064th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1815th percentile	0.0936th percentile
Points per game	37.280th percentile5 games	27.039th percentile5 games
per game	26.629th percentile5 games	23.450th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Florida Atlantic2026 Navy

Momentum

Florida Atlantic↗ rising (+35 pctl over 3 seasons)

Navy→ steady (−9 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Florida Atlantic

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 31st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 50th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+19)

2026 Navy

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 2nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 49th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+46)

Campus distance

895 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Florida Atlantic OL vs 2026 Navy DL	302.8 lbs	267.0 lbs
2026 Navy OL vs 2026 Florida Atlantic DL	287.8 lbs	294.1 lbs

2026 Florida Atlantic line yards 2.89 · 2026 Navy stuff rate 19.1%

2026 Navy line yards 3.74 · 2026 Florida Atlantic stuff rate 19.7%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Navy leads 3–1 since 2000

Florida Atlantic has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Florida Atlantic 38–30 Navy	FAU Stadium · Florida Atlantic home
2025	Florida Atlantic 32–42 Navy	Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · Navy home
2017	Florida Atlantic 19–42 Navy	FAU Stadium · Florida Atlantic home
2012	Florida Atlantic 17–24 Navy	Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · Navy home

Coaching & program context

2026 Florida Atlantic

Zach Kittley

OC: no staff data on file

Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 85th percentile of 2026 FBS; 76.8 plays a game, 96th percentile)

Brett Dewhurst

career average +38.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Navy

Brian Newberry

Drew Cronic

career average +31.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Wing-T (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 20% of its run–pass plays, 1st percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.4 plays a game, 37th percentile)

Eric Lewis
Ricky Brown (co-DC)

career average +35.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.