2026 Florida Atlantic vs 2026 Florida International
Hypothetical
51% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Florida Atlantic Offense · SP+ 2026: 28.9, 59th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida International Offense · SP+ 2026: 16.9, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida Atlantic Defense · SP+ 2026: 29.0, 31st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida International Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.1, 70th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida Atlantic Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida International Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Florida Atlantic Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 157.5 pts, 6th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Florida International Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 176.6 pts, 26th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Florida Atlantic Experience · returning production 2026: 68% returning, 81st percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Florida International Experience · returning production 2026: 32% returning, 37th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Florida Atlantic | 2026 Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1857th percentile | −0.019th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1815th percentile | −0.0790th percentile |
| Points per game | 37.280th percentile5 games | 18.812th percentile5 games |
| per game | 26.629th percentile5 games | 12.296th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 31st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 50th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 27th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 31st percentile
Campus distance
45 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Florida Atlantic OL vs 2026 Florida International DL | 302.8 lbs | 266.0 lbs |
| 2026 Florida International OL vs 2026 Florida Atlantic DL | 303.4 lbs | 294.1 lbs |
2026 Florida Atlantic line yards 2.89 · 2026 Florida International stuff rate 20.0%
2026 Florida International line yards 2.53 · 2026 Florida Atlantic stuff rate 19.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Florida Atlantic leads 15–6 since 2000
Florida Atlantic has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Florida Atlantic 16–10 Florida International | FAU Stadium · Florida Atlantic home |
| 2025 | Florida Atlantic 28–38 Florida International | Pitbull Stadium · Florida International home |
| 2024 | Florida Atlantic 38–20 Florida International | FAU Stadium · Florida Atlantic home |
| 2022 | Florida Atlantic 52–7 Florida International | FIU Stadium · Florida International home |
| 2021 | Florida Atlantic 58–21 Florida International | FAU Stadium · Florida Atlantic home |
| 2020 | Florida Atlantic 38–19 Florida International | FIU Stadium · Florida International home |
| 2019 | Florida Atlantic 37–7 Florida International | FAU Stadium · Florida Atlantic home |
| 2018 | Florida Atlantic 49–14 Florida International | FIU Stadium · Florida International home |
| 2017 | Florida Atlantic 52–24 Florida International | FAU Stadium · Florida Atlantic home |
| 2016 | Florida Atlantic 31–33 Florida International | FIU Stadium · Florida International home |
| 2015 | Florida Atlantic 31–17 Florida International | FAU Stadium · Florida Atlantic home |
| 2014 | Florida Atlantic 10–38 Florida International | FIU Stadium · Florida International home |
| 2013 | Florida Atlantic 21–6 Florida International | FAU Stadium · Florida Atlantic home |
| 2012 | Florida Atlantic 24–34 Florida International | FAU Stadium · Florida Atlantic home |
| 2011 | Florida Atlantic 7–41 Florida International | FIU Stadium · Florida International home |
| 2010 | Florida Atlantic 21–9 Florida International | Florida Atlantic home |
| 2009 | Florida Atlantic 28–21 Florida International | FIU Stadium · Florida International home |
| 2008 | Florida Atlantic 57–50 Florida International | Hard Rock Stadium · Florida Atlantic home |
| 2007 | Florida Atlantic 55–23 Florida International | Florida International home |
| 2006 | Florida Atlantic 31–0 Florida International | Florida Atlantic home |
| 2005 | Florida Atlantic 6–52 Florida International | Florida Atlantic home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Zach Kittley
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 85th percentile of 2026 FBS; 76.8 plays a game, 96th percentile)
DC
- Brett Dewhurst
career average +38.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Willie Simmons
OC: no staff data on file
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 69th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.4 plays a game, 85th percentile)
DC: no staff data on file
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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