2026 Duke vs 2026 Illinois

Hypothetical

Duke by 5.4

65% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

DukePreseason baseline +6.8In-season results +2.3

IllinoisPreseason baseline +8.4In-season results −2.2

Duke home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Duke	2026 Illinois
Offensive / play	0.2985th percentile	0.2374th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0166th percentile	0.254th percentile
Points per game	34.066th percentile5 games	31.860th percentile6 games
per game	14.491st percentile5 games	27.823rd percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Duke2026 Illinois

Momentum

Duke→ steady (0 pctl over 3 seasons)

Illinois↘ falling (−15 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Duke

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 60th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 68th percentile

Matching its talent (+8)

2026 Illinois

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 72nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 61st percentile

Underperforming its talent (−10)

Campus distance

580 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Duke OL vs 2026 Illinois DL	306.8 lbs	284.4 lbs
2026 Illinois OL vs 2026 Duke DL	316.2 lbs	264.7 lbs

2026 Duke line yards 3.30 · 2026 Illinois stuff rate 19.7%

2026 Illinois line yards 3.39 · 2026 Duke stuff rate 19.8%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · series tied 1–1 since 2000

Duke has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Duke 31–27 Illinois	Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) · Illinois home
2025	Duke 19–45 Illinois	Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home

Coaching & program context

2026 Duke

Manny Diaz

Jonathan Brewer

career average +31.9 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 28th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.8 plays a game, 81st percentile)

Jonathan Patke

career average +28.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

2026 Illinois

Bret Bielema

Barry Lunney Jr.

career average +26.1 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 86th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.2 plays a game, 26th percentile)

Bobby Hauck
Bobby Hauck (1st season; first 4 games)
Bobby Hauck (games 1–4)

no career track record on file

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.