2026 Delaware vs 2026 Middle Tennessee

Hypothetical

Delaware by 4.9

64% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

DelawarePreseason baseline −6.9In-season results −2.3

Middle TennesseePreseason baseline −8.0In-season results −3.6

Delaware home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Delaware	2026 Middle Tennessee
Offensive / play	0.0011th percentile	0.1035th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0936th percentile	0.229th percentile
Points per game	21.419th percentile5 games	20.816th percentile5 games
per game	25.637th percentile5 games	28.020th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Delaware2026 Middle Tennessee

Momentum

Delaware→ steady (−5 pctl over 3 seasons)

Middle Tennessee→ steady (+4 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Delaware

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2024–2026: 7th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 15th percentile

Matching its talent (+8)

2026 Middle Tennessee

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 16th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 6th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−10)

Campus distance

635 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Delaware OL vs 2026 Middle Tennessee DL	305.5 lbs	287.6 lbs
2026 Middle Tennessee OL vs 2026 Delaware DL	305.2 lbs	269.7 lbs

2026 Delaware line yards 2.78 · 2026 Middle Tennessee stuff rate 13.9%

2026 Middle Tennessee line yards 3.25 · 2026 Delaware stuff rate 15.7%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Delaware leads 1–0 since 2000

Delaware has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2025	Delaware 31–28 Middle Tennessee	Delaware Stadium · Delaware home

Coaching & program context

2026 Delaware

Ryan Carty

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 53% of its run–pass plays, 90th percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.0 plays a game, 32nd percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

2026 Middle Tennessee

Derek Mason

Anthony Scelfo

no career track record on file

Scheme: no scheme listed

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 55% of its run–pass plays, 96th percentile of 2026 FBS; 58.0 plays a game, 3rd percentile)

Brian Stewart

career average +30.3 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.