2026 Colorado State vs 2026 Texas State

Hypothetical

Texas State by 4.2

61% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Colorado StatePreseason baseline −4.6In-season results −0.8

Texas StatePreseason baseline +3.4In-season results −2.1

Colorado State home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Colorado State	2026 Texas State
Offensive / play	0.2477th percentile	0.2477th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.238th percentile	0.1134th percentile
Points per game	37.481st percentile5 games	34.869th percentile5 games
per game	38.64th percentile5 games	33.29th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Colorado State2026 Texas State

Momentum

Colorado State→ steady (−5 pctl over 3 seasons)

Texas State↘ falling (−16 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Colorado State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 42nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 26th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−16)

2026 Texas State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 32nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 49th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+17)

Campus distance

840 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Colorado State OL vs 2026 Texas State DL	306.2 lbs	267.1 lbs
2026 Texas State OL vs 2026 Colorado State DL	322.7 lbs	271.7 lbs

2026 Colorado State line yards 2.70 · 2026 Texas State stuff rate 25.0%

2026 Texas State line yards 3.18 · 2026 Colorado State stuff rate 15.0%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · no meetings since 2000

These programs haven't met since 2000.

Coaching & program context

2026 Colorado State

Jim Mora (First season as Colorado State's head coach)

Pryce Tracy

no career track record on file

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 55% of its run–pass plays, 95th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.8 plays a game, 53rd percentile)

Kenny McClendon (co-DC)
Tyson Summers
Tyson Summers (3rd season; first 5 games)

career average +29.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Texas State

G.J. Kinne

Jordan Shoemaker (co-OC)
Landon Keopple

career average +36.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Run and gun (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 38% of its run–pass plays, 14th percentile of 2026 FBS; 79.0 plays a game, 98th percentile)

Matthew Gregg (co-DC)
Will Windham

career average +31.4 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.