2026 Clemson vs 2026 North Carolina

Hypothetical

North Carolina by 1.1

53% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

ClemsonPreseason baseline +15.1In-season results −6.4

North CarolinaIn-season results +6.1Preseason baseline +1.2

North Carolina home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Clemson	2026 North Carolina
Offensive / play	−0.047th percentile	0.0932nd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0747th percentile	0.0166th percentile
Points per game	19.415th percentile5 games	23.428th percentile5 games
per game	25.834th percentile5 games	19.074th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Clemson2026 North Carolina

Momentum

Clemson↘ falling (−28 pctl over 3 seasons)

North Carolina→ steady (−4 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Clemson

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 88th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 56th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−32)

2026 North Carolina

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 79th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 60th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−19)

Campus distance

230 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Clemson OL vs 2026 North Carolina DL	304.3 lbs	277.9 lbs
2026 North Carolina OL vs 2026 Clemson DL	316.3 lbs	273.6 lbs

2026 Clemson line yards 2.75 · 2026 North Carolina stuff rate 9.3%

2026 North Carolina line yards 3.17 · 2026 Clemson stuff rate 11.5%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Clemson leads 12–2 since 2000

Clemson has won 8 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Clemson 28–20 North Carolina	Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson home
2025	Clemson 38–10 North Carolina	Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home
2023	Clemson 31–20 North Carolina	Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson home
2022	Clemson 39–10 North Carolina	Neutral site
2019	Clemson 21–20 North Carolina	Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home
2015	Clemson 45–37 North Carolina	Neutral site
2014	Clemson 50–35 North Carolina	Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson home
2011	Clemson 59–38 North Carolina	Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson home
2010	Clemson 16–21 North Carolina	Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home
2006	Clemson 52–7 North Carolina	Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson home
2003	Clemson 36–28 North Carolina	Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson home
2002	Clemson 42–12 North Carolina	Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home
2001	Clemson 3–38 North Carolina	Clemson home
2000	Clemson 38–24 North Carolina	North Carolina home

Coaching & program context

2026 Clemson

Dabo Swinney

Chad Morris
Kyle Richardson (co-OC)
Matt Luke (co-OC)

career average +31.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 47th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.0 plays a game, 47th percentile)

Nick Eason (co-DC)
Tom Allen

career average +19.4 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 North Carolina

Bill Belichick

Bobby Petrino

career average +33.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 72nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 57.2 plays a game, 2nd percentile)

Stephen Belichick
Stephen Belichick (2nd season; first 2 games)<br>Brian Belichick (interim; remainder of season)
Stephen Belichick (2nd season; first 7 games)<br>Brian Belichick (interim; remainder of season)

career average +23.7 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.