2026 Auburn vs 2026 Vanderbilt
Hypothetical
60% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Auburn Offense · SP+ 2026: 27.9, 55th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Vanderbilt Offense · SP+ 2026: 28.2, 57th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Auburn Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.1, 88th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Vanderbilt Defense · SP+ 2026: 27.2, 41st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Auburn Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Vanderbilt Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Auburn Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.0 pts, 78th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Vanderbilt Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 225.4 pts, 77th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Auburn Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning, 19th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Vanderbilt Experience · returning production 2026: 35% returning, 43rd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Auburn | 2026 Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0727th percentile | 0.0522nd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0166th percentile | 0.1134th percentile |
| Points per game | 26.839th percentile5 games | 24.029th percentile6 games |
| per game | 21.464th percentile5 games | 29.515th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 88th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 77th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 63rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 53rd percentile
Campus distance
255 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Auburn OL vs 2026 Vanderbilt DL | 315.2 lbs | 279.5 lbs |
| 2026 Vanderbilt OL vs 2026 Auburn DL | 312.8 lbs | 286.3 lbs |
2026 Auburn line yards 3.32 · 2026 Vanderbilt stuff rate 18.2%
2026 Vanderbilt line yards 2.90 · 2026 Auburn stuff rate 16.9%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Auburn leads 8–4 since 2000
Auburn has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Auburn 21–15 Vanderbilt | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2025 | Auburn 38–45 Vanderbilt | FirstBank Stadium · Vanderbilt home |
| 2024 | Auburn 7–17 Vanderbilt | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2023 | Auburn 31–15 Vanderbilt | FirstBank Stadium · Vanderbilt home |
| 2016 | Auburn 23–16 Vanderbilt | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2012 | Auburn 13–17 Vanderbilt | FirstBank Stadium · Vanderbilt home |
| 2008 | Auburn 13–14 Vanderbilt | FirstBank Stadium · Vanderbilt home |
| 2007 | Auburn 35–7 Vanderbilt | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2003 | Auburn 45–7 Vanderbilt | FirstBank Stadium · Vanderbilt home |
| 2002 | Auburn 31–6 Vanderbilt | Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home |
| 2001 | Auburn 24–21 Vanderbilt | FirstBank Stadium · Vanderbilt home |
| 2000 | Auburn 33–0 Vanderbilt | Auburn home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Alex Golesh (First season as Auburn's head coach)
OC
- Joel Gordon
- Kodi Burns (co-OC)
career average +33.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 53rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.2 plays a game, 70th percentile)
DC
- D. J. Durkin
- Tim Banks (co-DC)
career average +23.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Clark Lea
OC
- Tim Beck
career average +31.4 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pistol (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 61st percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.2 plays a game, 40th percentile)
DC
- Steve Gregory
career average +23.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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