2026 Auburn vs 2026 Southern Miss

Hypothetical

Auburn by 21.7

93% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

AuburnPreseason baseline +12.4In-season results +0.5

Southern MissIn-season results −7.9Preseason baseline −0.9

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Auburn	2026 Southern Miss
Offensive / play	0.0727th percentile	0.0831st percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0166th percentile	0.2012th percentile
Points per game	26.839th percentile5 games	26.437th percentile5 games
per game	21.464th percentile5 games	34.66th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Auburn2026 Southern Miss

Momentum

Auburn→ steady (+1 pctl over 3 seasons)

Southern Miss→ steady (+7 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Auburn

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 88th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 77th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−12)

2026 Southern Miss

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 32nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 7th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−24)

Campus distance

240 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Auburn OL vs 2026 Southern Miss DL	315.2 lbs	285.8 lbs
2026 Southern Miss OL vs 2026 Auburn DL	309.2 lbs	286.3 lbs

2026 Auburn line yards 3.32 · 2026 Southern Miss stuff rate 15.3%

2026 Southern Miss line yards 3.55 · 2026 Auburn stuff rate 16.9%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Auburn leads 3–0 since 2000

Auburn has won 3 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Auburn 43–8 Southern Miss	Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home
2018	Auburn 24–13 Southern Miss	Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home
2008	Auburn 27–13 Southern Miss	Jordan-Hare Stadium · Auburn home

Coaching & program context

2026 Auburn

Alex Golesh (First season as Auburn's head coach)

Joel Gordon
Kodi Burns (co-OC)

career average +33.3 SP+ offense

Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 53rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.2 plays a game, 70th percentile)

D. J. Durkin
Tim Banks (co-DC)

career average +23.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Southern Miss

Blake Anderson

Kyle Cefalo

career average +29.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 83rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.6 plays a game, 74th percentile)

Joe Bolden

no career track record on file

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.