Saturday, October 17

Army

3–2

Florida Atlantic

4–1

12:00 PM ETMichie StadiumWest Point, NY

Weather

Partly cloudy49°FNW 17 mphGusts 33 mphPrecip 7%

At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:47 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

West Point · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy49°FNW 17 mphGusts 33 mphPrecip 7%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

65%

Army win probability

Florida Atlantic 35%

Army by 5.4

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Army's case

Army's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Army's offense is in the 88th percentile for per play this season. Florida Atlantic's defense is in the 15th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Florida Atlantic's answer

Florida Atlantic's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Florida Atlantic's offense is in the 57th percentile for predicted points added (PPA) per play this season. Army's defense is in the 18th percentile for PPA allowed.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 33 mph at kickoff.

See the weather

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Army has the ball

Army offense: 88th
Florida Atlantic defense: 15th

Show the underlying numbers

Army offensive PPA per play: 0.3088th percentile · #16 nationally
Florida Atlantic PPA allowed per play: 0.1815th percentile · #114 nationally
Army: 53%97th percentile · #5 nationally
Florida Atlantic success rate allowed: 40%55th percentile · #63 nationally
Army points per game: 30.654th percentile · #64 nationally
Florida Atlantic per game: 26.629th percentile · #98 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Army offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.06
Rush success: 53.8%

Florida Atlantic defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.59
Rush success allowed: 40.2%

When Florida Atlantic has the ball

Florida Atlantic offense: 57th
Army defense: 18th

Show the underlying numbers

Florida Atlantic offensive PPA per play: 0.1857th percentile · #54 nationally
Army PPA allowed per play: 0.1718th percentile · #111 nationally
Florida Atlantic success rate: 45%61st percentile · #55 nationally
Army success rate allowed: 42%33rd percentile · #93 nationally
Florida Atlantic points per game: 37.280th percentile · #28 nationally
Army points allowed per game: 19.272nd percentile · #39 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Florida Atlantic offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.27
Rush success: 40.9%

Army defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.47
Rush success allowed: 43.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Cale Hellums · 86% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 39%
Usage: charted in this direction: 12 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.7; over 11 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 55%; over 11 attempts with a result

31 of 31 have a direction · 0 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 24 short · 7 deep · 0 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Army offense in 2026

Cale Hellums

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

31/55 · 56% season

Passing yards: 356
Touchdowns: 3
Interception: 1

Last game

Tulane · Oct 10, 2026: 3/6, 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Cale Hellums

QB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 104
Rushing yards: 524
Touchdowns: 8

Last game

Tulane · Oct 10, 2026: 38 carries, 223 yds, 2 TD

Zach Mundell

WR · 4 games

Receptions: 8
Receiving yards: 95
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Tulane · Oct 10, 2026: 1 rec, 11 yds, 0 TD

Army player tables

Who is producing

Army player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Army — Passing production
Player
Cale HellumsQB	5	31 / 55	356	6.5	3	1
Bryson LuterQB	1	1 / 2	7	3.5	0	0
Ethan WashingtonQB	1	2 / 2	13	6.5	0	0
Zach MundellWR	1	1 / 1	37	37.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Florida Atlantic player tables

Who is producing

Florida Atlantic player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Florida Atlantic — Passing production
Player
Caden VeltkampQB	5	127 / 174	1,425	8.2	12	2
Drew DevillierQB	3	6 / 12	73	6.1	0	0
Jeremiah DaoudQB	1	1 / 4	6	1.5	0	0
Jordan MagwoodQB	1	1 / 3	16	5.3	0	0
Easton MesserWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Army's line averages 294.1 lbs against Florida Atlantic's 294.1 lbs front — about even.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Army OLArmy OL vs Florida Atlantic DL	294.1 lbs	294.1 lbs
Florida Atlantic OLFlorida Atlantic OL vs Army DL	302.8 lbs	268.1 lbs

Army
Florida Atlantic

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Army

Points per game: 30.6#64 nationally · 54th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 19.2#39 nationally · 72nd percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 80% of 2025 PPA returns · 92nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 38% · 196 of 196 with a class year

Florida Atlantic

Points per game: 37.2#28 nationally · 80th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 26.6#98 nationally · 29th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 68% of 2025 PPA returns · 81st percentile
Upperclassmen: 65% · 116 of 116 with a class year

Recruiting

Army

2026 signing class · #138 nationally: 0th percentile · 39.9 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #138 nationally: 0th percentile · −2.66 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #136 nationally: 1st percentile · 303.8

Florida Atlantic

2026 signing class · #130 nationally: 6th percentile · 157.5 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #99 nationally: 28th percentile · −0.57 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #98 nationally: 29th percentile · 593.4

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Army: solid line, circles · Florida Atlantic: dashed line, squares

Army

Offense · 2026: 27.5 · 53rd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.5 · 34th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 39.9 pts · 0th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 80% returning · 92nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Florida Atlantic

Offense · SP+ 2026: 28.9 · 59th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 29.0 · 31st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 157.5 pts · 6th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 68% returning · 81st percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Army's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 66 recorded plays
vs Tulane
W 20–17
50%
Success rate
0.18
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 71 recorded plays
at Louisiana Tech
L 29–31
48%
Success rate
0.23
PPA / play
Sep 25 · 66 recorded plays
at Temple
W 21–17
47%
Success rate
0.25
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Army

Head coach: Jeff Monken
career −3.8 SP+ overall
Photo: U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Dana Clarke, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Cody Worley
career +27.9 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Daryl Dixon
no career rating on file

Florida Atlantic

Head coach: Zach Kittley
career −8.7 SP+ overall
Photo: Rick Munroe, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Brett Dewhurst
career +38.1 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Army leads 1–0 since 2000

2024 · Army 24, Florida Atlantic 7
FAU Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Army: 5 games
Florida Atlantic: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Army's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Florida Atlantic's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

When each team has the ball

When Army has the ball

Army offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Florida Atlantic defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When Florida Atlantic has the ball

Florida Atlantic offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Army defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Cale Hellums

Cale Hellums

Zach Mundell

Army player production

Florida Atlantic player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Army

Florida Atlantic

Recruiting

Army

Florida Atlantic

Season percentile profiles

Army

Florida Atlantic

Army's recent games

vs Tulane

at Louisiana Tech

at Temple

The coaching staff

Army

Florida Atlantic

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources