2026 Arkansas vs 2026 Tulsa

Hypothetical

Arkansas by 10.4

77% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

ArkansasPreseason baseline +8.1In-season results −2.9

TulsaPreseason baseline −7.9In-season results +2.6

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Arkansas	2026 Tulsa
Offensive / play	0.0113th percentile	0.1446th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1718th percentile	0.0361st percentile
Points per game	19.314th percentile6 games	27.542nd percentile6 games
per game	27.724th percentile6 games	23.352nd percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Arkansas2026 Tulsa

Momentum

Arkansas↘ falling (−45 pctl over 3 seasons)

Tulsa↗ rising (+28 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Arkansas

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 76th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 38th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−38)

2026 Tulsa

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 32nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 33rd percentile

Matching its talent (+1)

Campus distance

100 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Arkansas OL vs 2026 Tulsa DL	311.0 lbs	263.8 lbs
2026 Tulsa OL vs 2026 Arkansas DL	301.3 lbs	282.8 lbs

2026 Arkansas line yards 2.59 · 2026 Tulsa stuff rate 16.8%

2026 Tulsa line yards 3.20 · 2026 Arkansas stuff rate 15.9%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Arkansas leads 5–0 since 2000

Arkansas has won 5 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Arkansas 34–6 Tulsa	Razorback Stadium · Arkansas home
2018	Arkansas 23–0 Tulsa	Razorback Stadium · Arkansas home
2012	Arkansas 19–15 Tulsa	Razorback Stadium · Arkansas home
2008	Arkansas 30–23 Tulsa	Razorback Stadium · Arkansas home
2003	Arkansas 45–13 Tulsa	Razorback Stadium · Arkansas home

Coaching & program context

2026 Arkansas

Ryan Silverfield (First season as Arkansas's head coach)

Tim Cramsey

career average +32.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 88th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.3 plays a game, 68th percentile)

Deron Wilson (co-DC)
Ron Roberts

career average +25.7 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Tulsa

Tre Lamb

Kevin Barbay
Ty Darlington (co-OC)

career average +25.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 68th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.5 plays a game, 51st percentile)

Josh Reardon
Mike Gray (co-DC)

career average +33.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.