2026 App State vs 2026 Coastal Carolina
Hypothetical
58% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 App State Offense · SP+ 2026: 21.8, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Coastal Carolina Offense · SP+ 2026: 22.6, 30th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 App State Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Coastal Carolina Defense · SP+ 2026: 33.6, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 App State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Coastal Carolina Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 App State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 198.6 pts, 58th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Coastal Carolina Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 165.0 pts, 15th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 App State Experience · returning production 2026: 38% returning, 47th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Coastal Carolina Experience · returning production 2026: 15% returning, 21st percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 App State | 2026 Coastal Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1239th percentile | 0.1239th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0262nd percentile | 0.1134th percentile |
| Points per game | 28.447th percentile5 games | 25.233rd percentile6 games |
| per game | 19.871st percentile5 games | 24.345th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 36th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 30th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 27th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 20th percentile
Campus distance
225 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 App State OL vs 2026 Coastal Carolina DL | 302.3 lbs | 265.5 lbs |
| 2026 Coastal Carolina OL vs 2026 App State DL | 314.4 lbs | 269.6 lbs |
2026 App State line yards 2.68 · 2026 Coastal Carolina stuff rate 15.6%
2026 Coastal Carolina line yards 3.31 · 2026 App State stuff rate 23.1%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Coastal Carolina leads 5–4 since 2000
Coastal Carolina has won 4 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | App State 37–45 Coastal Carolina | Kidd Brewer Stadium · App State home |
| 2024 | App State 24–38 Coastal Carolina | Brooks Stadium (SC) · Coastal Carolina home |
| 2023 | App State 24–27 Coastal Carolina | Kidd Brewer Stadium · App State home |
| 2022 | App State 28–35 Coastal Carolina | Brooks Stadium (SC) · Coastal Carolina home |
| 2021 | App State 30–27 Coastal Carolina | Kidd Brewer Stadium · App State home |
| 2020 | App State 23–34 Coastal Carolina | Brooks Stadium (SC) · Coastal Carolina home |
| 2019 | App State 56–37 Coastal Carolina | Kidd Brewer Stadium · App State home |
| 2018 | App State 23–7 Coastal Carolina | Brooks Stadium (SC) · Coastal Carolina home |
| 2017 | App State 37–29 Coastal Carolina | Kidd Brewer Stadium · App State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Dowell Loggains
OC: no staff data on file
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 81st percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.8 plays a game, 63rd percentile)
DC: no staff data on file
HC
- Ryan Beard
OC
- Nick Petrino
career average +25.6 SP+ offense
Scheme: no scheme listed
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 45th percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.3 plays a game, 34th percentile)
DC
- L. D. Scott
career average +34.8 SP+ defense
Scheme: no scheme listed
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
App State at Coastal Carolina · October 16, 2026
Share this matchup
Pasting the link anywhere unfurls the graphic automatically.
