2026 Alabama vs 2026 Kentucky
Hypothetical
91% to win
High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Alabama Offense · SP+ 2026: 40.0, 97th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Kentucky Offense · SP+ 2026: 33.1, 77th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Alabama Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.1, 88th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Kentucky Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.0, 56th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Alabama Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Kentucky Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Alabama Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 303.8 pts, 99th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Kentucky Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 197.2 pts, 57th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Alabama Experience · returning production 2026: 26% returning, 33rd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Kentucky Experience · returning production 2026: 19% returning, 26th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Alabama | 2026 Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3395th percentile | 0.2169th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0685th percentile | 0.0458th percentile |
| Points per game | 44.299th percentile6 games | 34.768th percentile6 games |
| per game | 20.767th percentile6 games | 28.020th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 99th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 95th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 74th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 66th percentile
Campus distance
375 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Alabama OL vs 2026 Kentucky DL | 309.5 lbs | 285.8 lbs |
| 2026 Kentucky OL vs 2026 Alabama DL | 320.2 lbs | 292.1 lbs |
2026 Alabama line yards 3.23 · 2026 Kentucky stuff rate 18.7%
2026 Kentucky line yards 3.27 · 2026 Alabama stuff rate 25.0%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Alabama leads 9–0 since 2000
Alabama has won 9 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Alabama 45–17 Kentucky | Kroger Field · Kentucky home |
| 2023 | Alabama 49–21 Kentucky | Kroger Field · Kentucky home |
| 2020 | Alabama 63–3 Kentucky | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2016 | Alabama 34–6 Kentucky | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2013 | Alabama 48–7 Kentucky | Kroger Field · Kentucky home |
| 2009 | Alabama 38–20 Kentucky | Kroger Field · Kentucky home |
| 2008 | Alabama 17–14 Kentucky | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2004 | Alabama 45–17 Kentucky | Kroger Field · Kentucky home |
| 2003 | Alabama 27–17 Kentucky | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Kalen DeBoer
OC
- Ryan Grubb
career average +34.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Run and Gun (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 33rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.2 plays a game, 33rd percentile)
DC
- Kane Wommack
- Maurice Linguist (co-DC)
career average +21.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5, Swarm (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Will Stein (First season as Kentucky's head coach)
OC
- Joe Sloan
career average +36.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 48th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.7 plays a game, 45th percentile)
DC
- Jay Bateman
career average +30.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
Share this matchup
Pasting the link anywhere unfurls the graphic automatically.
