Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
5–1 · AP #15
at
Oklahoma
3–2
7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTMemorial Stadium (Norman, OK)Norman, OK
Clear63°FE 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 2%
At kickoff · 6:30 PM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service
Norman · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear63°FE 2 mphGusts 6 mphPrecip 2%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
28%
Kentucky win probability
Oklahoma 72%
Oklahoma by 8.5
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Kentucky's case
Kentucky's defense is in the 58th percentile for allowed per play this season. Oklahoma's offense is in the 7th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Oklahoma's answer
Oklahoma's defense is in the 99th percentile for predicted points added (PPA) allowed per play this season. Kentucky's offense is in the 69th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives Kentucky a 28% chance to win and predicts Oklahoma by 8.5 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.3 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Kenny Minchey · 75% of charted pass attempts
100 of 101 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 85 short · 15 deep · 1 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (49%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 10.6 over 24 attempts with a result.
The Kentucky offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
120/178 · 67% season
Last game
LSU · Oct 10, 2026: 23/36, 246 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
RB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
LSU · Oct 10, 2026: 19 carries, 123 yds, 2 TD
WR · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
LSU · Oct 10, 2026: 4 rec, 79 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny MincheyQB | 6 | 120 / 178 | 1,394 | 7.8 | 11 | 1 |
| Callum WitherQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John MateerQB | 5 | 90 / 135 | 1,038 | 7.7 | 8 | 4 |
| Bowe BentleyQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Whitt NewbauerQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Kentucky's line averages 320.2 lbs against Oklahoma's 277.9 lbs front — an edge of 42.3 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Kentucky OLKentucky OL vs Oklahoma DL | 320.2 lbs | 277.9 lbs |
| Oklahoma OLOklahoma OL vs Kentucky DL | 318.6 lbs | 285.8 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Kentucky: solid line, circles · Oklahoma: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 70 recorded plays
W 35–34
41%
Success rate
0.14
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 78 recorded plays
W 35–34
50%
Success rate
0.19
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 63 recorded plays
W 45–21
60%
Success rate
0.37
PPA / play
Will Stein
First season as Kentucky's head coach · no career rating on file
Photo: George Wrighster's College Football Podcast, CC BY 4.0
Joe Sloan
career +36.8 SP+ offense
Jay Bateman
career +30.5 SP+ defense
Ben Arbuckle
career +31.6 SP+ offense
No meetings since 2000
Evidence window: 2026 season to date
