Saturday, October 17

San Diego State

2–4

Fresno State

4–2

10:30 PM ET7:30 PM PTSnapdragon StadiumSan Diego, CA

Weather

Clear79°FN 7 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 7:30 PM PT · Updated 12:09 PM PT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

San Diego · local time (PT)

Kickoff hour

Clear79°FN 7 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

33%

San Diego State win probability

Fresno State 67%

Fresno State by 6.4

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · San Diego State's case

No clear statistical strength for San Diego State yet

In every matchup we can rate this season, the San Diego State unit ranks well below the Fresno State unit it faces.

See when each team has the ball

02 · Fresno State's answer

Fresno State's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

Fresno State's defense is in the 62nd percentile for allowed per play this season. San Diego State's offense is in the 1st percentile for PPA per play.

See when each team has the ball

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives San Diego State a 33% chance to win and predicts Fresno State by 6.4 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When San Diego State has the ball

San Diego State offense: 1st
Fresno State defense: 62nd

Show the underlying numbers

San Diego State offensive PPA per play: −0.121st percentile · #135 nationally
Fresno State PPA allowed per play: 0.0262nd percentile · #49 nationally
San Diego State: 33%1st percentile · #136 nationally
Fresno State success rate allowed: 42%39th percentile · #85 nationally
San Diego State points per game: 22.825th percentile · #104 nationally
Fresno State per game: 20.069th percentile · #42 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

San Diego State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.28
Rush success: 35.5%

Fresno State defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.18
Rush success allowed: 42.9%

When Fresno State has the ball

Fresno State offense: 46th
San Diego State defense: 22nd

Show the underlying numbers

Fresno State offensive PPA per play: 0.1446th percentile · #71 nationally
San Diego State PPA allowed per play: 0.1522nd percentile · #104 nationally
Fresno State success rate: 39%21st percentile · #109 nationally
San Diego State success rate allowed: 48%6th percentile · #130 nationally
Fresno State points per game: 28.347th percentile · #74 nationally
San Diego State points allowed per game: 35.05th percentile · #131 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Fresno State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.34
Rush success: 34.7%

San Diego State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.12
Rush success allowed: 48.4%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Jayden Denegal · 76% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 52%
Usage: charted in this direction: 49 attempts
Yards / attempt: 6.4; over 49 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 59%; over 49 attempts with a result

94 of 99 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 80 short · 14 deep · 5 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go left (52%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 9.1 over 15 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The San Diego State offense in 2026

Jayden Denegal

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

75/140 · 54% season

Passing yards: 784
Touchdowns: 6
Interceptions: 5

Last game

Oregon State · Oct 10, 2026: 5/19, 78 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

Javion Kinnard

RB · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 67
Rushing yards: 355
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Oregon State · Oct 10, 2026: 11 carries, 43 yds, 0 TD

Nathan Acevedo

WR · 5 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 16
Receiving yards: 177
Touchdowns: 2

Last game

Texas State · Oct 3, 2026: 4 rec, 47 yds, 0 TD

San Diego State player tables

Who is producing

San Diego State player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

San Diego State — Passing production
Player
Jayden DenegalQB	6	75 / 140	784	5.6	6	5
Draiden TrudeauQB	3	8 / 14	66	4.7	1	1
Stone SaundersQB	1	2 / 4	20	5.0	0	0
Jordan NapierWR	1	1 / 1	−11	−11.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Fresno State player tables

Who is producing

Fresno State player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Fresno State — Passing production
Player
Jayden MandalQB	6	110 / 170	1,252	7.4	8	1
Khristian MartinQB	2	3 / 4	71	17.8	1	0
Jordan Malau'uluWR	1	1 / 1	21	21.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

San Diego State's line averages 317.6 lbs against Fresno State's 268.9 lbs front — an edge of 48.7 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
San Diego State OLSan Diego State OL vs Fresno State DL	317.6 lbs	268.9 lbs
Fresno State OLFresno State OL vs San Diego State DL	305.0 lbs	268.2 lbs

San Diego State
Fresno State

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

San Diego State

Points per game: 22.8#104 nationally · 25th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 35.0#131 nationally · 5th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 99% of 2025 PPA returns · 99th percentile
Upperclassmen: 48% · 150 of 150 with a class year

Fresno State

Points per game: 28.3#74 nationally · 47th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 20.0#42 nationally · 69th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 38% of 2025 PPA returns · 47th percentile
Upperclassmen: 39% · 118 of 118 with a class year

Recruiting

San Diego State

2026 signing class · #83 nationally: 40th percentile · 184.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #73 nationally: 47th percentile · −0.25 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #89 nationally: 36th percentile · 609.2

Fresno State

2026 signing class · #70 nationally: 50th percentile · 189.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #81 nationally: 42nd percentile · −0.39 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #88 nationally: 36th percentile · 609.8

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

San Diego State: solid line, circles · Fresno State: dashed line, squares

San Diego State

Offense · 2026: 19.5 · 19th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.1 · 27th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4 · 95th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 184.2 pts · 40th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 99% returning · 99th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Fresno State

Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.4 · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.9 · 66th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 189.4 pts · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 38% returning · 47th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

San Diego State's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 28 recorded plays
at Oregon State
L 14–66
29%
Success rate
−0.27
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 53 recorded plays
vs Texas State
W 31–29
36%
Success rate
−0.13
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 43 recorded plays
at Toledo
L 16–41
26%
Success rate
−0.19
PPA / play

The coaching staff

San Diego State

Head coach: Sean Lewis
career −9.5 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Matt Johnson
career +8.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Demetrius Sumler
no career rating on file

Fresno State

Head coach: Matt Entz
career +1.8 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Josh Davis
career +23.0 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Adam Breske
Co-defensive coordinator · career +27.5 SP+ defense; Nick Benedetto
career +27.5 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Fresno State leads 8–6 since 2000

2025 · San Diego State 23, Fresno State 0
Valley Children's Stadium
2023 · San Diego State 33, Fresno State 18
Snapdragon Stadium
2022 · Fresno State 32, San Diego State 28
Valley Children's Stadium
2021 · Fresno State 30, San Diego State 20
Qualcomm Stadium
2019 · San Diego State 17, Fresno State 7
Qualcomm Stadium
2018 · Fresno State 23, San Diego State 14
Valley Children's Stadium
2017 · Fresno State 27, San Diego State 3
Qualcomm Stadium
2016 · San Diego State 17, Fresno State 3
Valley Children's Stadium
2015 · San Diego State 21, Fresno State 7
Qualcomm Stadium
2014 · Fresno State 24, San Diego State 13
Valley Children's Stadium
2013 · Fresno State 35, San Diego State 28
Qualcomm Stadium
2012 · Fresno State 52, San Diego State 40
Valley Children's Stadium
2011 · San Diego State 35, Fresno State 28
Qualcomm Stadium
2002 · Fresno State 16, San Diego State 14
Valley Children's Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

San Diego State: 6 games
Fresno State: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for San Diego State yet

Fresno State's defense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When San Diego State has the ball

San Diego State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Fresno State defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When Fresno State has the ball

Fresno State offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

San Diego State defense · 5 of the last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Jayden Denegal

Javion Kinnard

Nathan Acevedo

San Diego State player production

Fresno State player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

San Diego State

Fresno State

Recruiting

San Diego State

Fresno State

Season percentile profiles

San Diego State

Fresno State

San Diego State's recent games

at Oregon State

vs Texas State

at Toledo

The coaching staff

San Diego State

Fresno State

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources