01 · Utah State's case
Utah State's offense leads its matchup in scoring
Utah State's offense was in the 74th percentile for points per game last season. Texas State's defense was in the 30th percentile for per game.
See the underlying numbersSaturday, October 24
Compare these teams
Utah State
2–4
at
Texas State
2–3
7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTBobcat Stadium (TX)San Marcos, TX
Weather
Forecast available from Saturday, October 17.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Game forecast
Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.
The game in a minute
02 · Texas State's answer
Texas State's offense leads its matchup in per-play efficiency
Texas State's offense was in the 93rd percentile for per play last season. Utah State's defense was in the 21st percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
No forecast yet
There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.
See the forecastWhen each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When Utah State has the ball
- Utah State offense
- 65th
- Texas State defense
- 45th
Show the underlying numbers
- Utah State offensive PPA per play
- 0.2065th percentile · #41 nationally
- Texas State PPA allowed per play
- 0.1645th percentile · #70 nationally
- Utah State
- 41%38th percentile · #85 nationally
- Texas State success rate allowed
- 41%56th percentile · #61 nationally
- Utah State points per game
- 30.974th percentile · #36 nationally
- Texas State points allowed per game
- 29.030th percentile · #95 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
Utah State offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.36
- Rush success
- 44.4%
Texas State defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.28
- Rush success allowed
- 38.9%
When Texas State has the ball
- Texas State offense
- 93rd
- Utah State defense
- 21st
Show the underlying numbers
- Texas State offensive PPA per play
- 0.3193rd percentile · #9 nationally
- Utah State PPA allowed per play
- 0.2021st percentile · #100 nationally
- Texas State success rate
- 46%79th percentile · #29 nationally
- Utah State success rate allowed
- 43%35th percentile · #89 nationally
- Texas State points per game
- 36.592nd percentile · #12 nationally
- Utah State points allowed per game
- 28.734th percentile · #90 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Texas State offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.44
- Rush success
- 42.3%
Utah State defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.34
- Rush success allowed
- 40.4%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Bryson Barnes · 89% of charted pass attempts
Throwing right
- Share of charted plays
- 50%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 166 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 7.4
- over 166 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 62%
- over 166 attempts with a result
331 of 334 have a direction · 3 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 280 short · 51 deep · 3 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (50%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 10.6 over 46 attempts with a result.
Who's driving the offense?
The Utah State offense in 2025
Bryson Barnes
QB · 13 games
211/356 · 59% season
- Passing yards
- 2,802
- Touchdowns
- 18
- Interceptions
- 5
Last game
Washington State · Dec 22, 2025: 9/21, 116 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
Bryson Barnes
QB · 13 games
- Carries
- 189
- Rushing yards
- 740
- Touchdowns
- 10
Last game
Washington State · Dec 22, 2025: 13 carries, 7 yds, 1 TD
Braden Pegan
WR · 12 games
- Receptions
- 60
- Receiving yards
- 925
- Touchdowns
- 5
Last game
Boise State · Nov 28, 2025: 2 rec, 27 yds, 0 TD
Utah State player tables
Who is producing
Utah State player production
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryson BarnesQB | 13 | 211 / 356 | 2,802 | 7.9 | 18 | 5 |
| Jacob ConoverQB | 5 | 24 / 39 | 323 | 8.3 | 4 | 0 |
| Anthony GarciaQB | 6 | 6 / 7 | 79 | 11.3 | 4 | 0 |
| Landon RehkowP | 1 | 1 / 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Texas State player tables
Who is producing
Texas State player production
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad JacksonQB | 13 | 251 / 352 | 3,223 | 9.2 | 21 | 7 |
| Keldric LusterQB | 2 | 1 / 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Beau SparksWR | 1 | 1 / 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Holden GerinerQB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
In the trenches
Utah State's line averages 296.7 lbs against Texas State's 267.1 lbs front — an edge of 29.6 lbs a man.
Texas State's front average is based on 20 of 25 linemen.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Utah State OLUtah State OL vs Texas State DL | 296.7 lbs | 267.1 lbs |
| Texas State OLTexas State OL vs Utah State DL | 322.7 lbs | 290.0 lbs |
- Utah State
- Texas State
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
How these teams stack up
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Utah State
- Points per game
- 30.9#36 nationally · 74th percentile · 13 games
- Points allowed per game
- 28.7#90 nationally · 34th percentile · 13 games
- Returning production
- 63% of 2024 PPA returns · 66th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 44% · 109 of 109 with a class year
Texas State
- Points per game
- 36.5#12 nationally · 92nd percentile · 13 games
- Points allowed per game
- 29.0#95 nationally · 30th percentile · 13 games
- Returning production
- 93% of 2024 PPA returns · 90th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 46% · 112 of 112 with a class year
Recruiting
Utah State
- 2025 signing class · #87 nationally
- 36th percentile · 159.3 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #100 nationally
- 27th percentile · −0.61 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #114 nationally
- 15th percentile · 503.6
Texas State
- 2025 signing class · #101 nationally
- 26th percentile · 144.4 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #107 nationally
- 21st percentile · −0.71 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #76 nationally
- 44th percentile · 612.2
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- Utah State Offense · SP+ 2025: 29.5, 61st percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Texas State Offense · SP+ 2025: 36.6, 90th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Utah State Defense · SP+ 2025: 31.2, 28th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Texas State Defense · SP+ 2025: 34.6, 14th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Utah State Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.4, 15th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Texas State Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.4, 56th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Utah State Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 159.3 pts, 36th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Texas State Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 144.4 pts, 26th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Utah State Experience · returning production 2025: 63% returning, 66th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
- Texas State Experience · returning production 2025: 93% returning, 90th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Utah State: solid line, circles · Texas State: dashed line, squares
Utah State
- Offense · 2025
- 29.5 · 61st percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 31.2 · 28th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- −1.4 · 15th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 159.3 pts · 36th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 63% returning · 66th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Texas State
- Offense · SP+ 2025
- 36.6 · 90th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 34.6 · 14th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- 0.4 · 56th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 144.4 pts · 26th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 93% returning · 90th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Utah State's recent games
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 22
vs Washington State · neutral site
L 21–34
Play stats pending
Nov 28 · 68 recorded plays
vs Boise State
L 24–25
35%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 84 recorded plays
at Fresno State
W 28–17
42%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play
The coaching staff
Utah State
- Head coach
- Offensive coordinator
Robert Anae
career +30.8 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Nick Howell
career +32.1 SP+ defense
Texas State
- Head coach
G.J. Kinne
career +2.0 SP+ overall
- Offensive coordinator
Jordan Shoemaker
Co-offensive coordinator · career +36.6 SP+ offense
Landon Keopple
career +36.6 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Matthew Gregg
Co-defensive coordinator · career +31.4 SP+ defense
Will Windham
career +31.4 SP+ defense
Head-to-head
Utah State leads 1–0 since 2000
2012 · Utah State 38, Texas State 7
Maverik Stadium
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2025 full season
- Utah State: 13 games
- Texas State: 13 games
- The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD