Saturday, October 24

USC

6–1 · AP #19

Wisconsin

4–1

Time TBACamp Randall StadiumMadison, WI

Weather

Forecast available from Friday, October 16.

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.

The game in a minute

01 · USC's case

USC's offense leads its matchup in

USC's offense was in the 95th percentile for success rate last season. Wisconsin's defense was in the 16th percentile for success rate allowed.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Wisconsin's answer

Wisconsin has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stood out against USC's offense last season.

03 · What could swing it

No forecast yet

There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When USC has the ball

USC offense: 97th
Wisconsin defense: 40th

Show the underlying numbers

USC offensive per play: 0.3497th percentile · #4 nationally
Wisconsin PPA allowed per play: 0.1740th percentile · #76 nationally
USC success rate: 49%95th percentile · #8 nationally
Wisconsin success rate allowed: 45%16th percentile · #115 nationally
USC points per game: 35.891st percentile · #13 nationally
Wisconsin per game: 21.672nd percentile · #39 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

USC offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.33
Rush success: 40.1%

Wisconsin defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.08
Rush success allowed: 46.6%

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin offense: 4th
USC defense: 50th

Show the underlying numbers

Wisconsin offensive PPA per play: 0.024th percentile · #130 nationally
USC PPA allowed per play: 0.1550th percentile · #60 nationally
Wisconsin success rate: 37%10th percentile · #122 nationally
USC success rate allowed: 45%14th percentile · #117 nationally
Wisconsin points per game: 12.81st percentile · #135 nationally
USC points allowed per game: 23.063rd percentile · #51 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Wisconsin offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.24
Rush success: 30.9%

USC defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.05
Rush success allowed: 48.9%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Jayden Maiava · 96% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 41%
Usage: charted in this direction: 152 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.7; over 151 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 70%; over 151 attempts with a result

367 of 375 have a direction · 8 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 303 short · 64 deep · 8 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The USC offense in 2025

Jayden Maiava

QB · 13 games

265/403 · 66% season

Passing yards: 3,711
Touchdowns: 24
Interceptions: 10

Last game

TCU · Dec 30, 2025: 18/30, 280 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

King Miller

RB · 11 games

Carries: 156
Rushing yards: 972
Touchdowns: 8

Last game

TCU · Dec 30, 2025: 25 carries, 99 yds, 1 TD

Makai Lemon

WR · 12 games

Receptions: 79
Receiving yards: 1,156
Touchdowns: 11

Last game

UCLA · Nov 29, 2025: 1 rec, 32 yds, 1 TD

USC player tables

Who is producing

USC player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

USC — Passing production
Player
Jayden MaiavaQB	13	265 / 403	3,711	9.2	24	10
Husan LongstreetQB	2	13 / 15	103	6.9	1	0
Makai LemonWR	1	1 / 1	24	24.0	1	0
Sam HuardQB	1	1 / 1	10	10.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Wisconsin player tables

Who is producing

Wisconsin player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Wisconsin — Passing production
Player
Hunter SimmonsQB	8	62 / 118	664	5.6	2	7
Danny O'NeilQB	6	61 / 90	635	7.1	5	5
Carter SmithQB	4	26 / 46	201	4.4	2	1
Billy EdwardsQB	2	7 / 16	113	7.1	0	0
Sean WestPK	1	1 / 1	24	24.0	0	0
Tyrell HenryWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

6 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

USC's line averages 318.6 lbs against Wisconsin's 302.4 lbs front — an edge of 16.2 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
USC OLUSC OL vs Wisconsin DL	318.6 lbs	302.4 lbs
Wisconsin OLWisconsin OL vs USC DL	317.7 lbs	276.7 lbs

USC
Wisconsin

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

USC

Points per game: 35.8#13 nationally · 91st percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 23.0#51 nationally · 63rd percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 37% of 2024 PPA returns · 32nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 38% · 114 of 114 with a class year

Wisconsin

Points per game: 12.8#135 nationally · 1st percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 21.6#39 nationally · 72nd percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 40% of 2024 PPA returns · 36th percentile
Upperclassmen: 47% · 116 of 116 with a class year

Recruiting

USC

2025 signing class · #14 nationally: 90th percentile · 257.0 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #17 nationally: 88th percentile · 1.23 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #17 nationally: 88th percentile · 847.5

Wisconsin

2025 signing class · #27 nationally: 81st percentile · 227.2 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #27 nationally: 81st percentile · 0.70 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #28 nationally: 80th percentile · 763.2

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

USC: solid line, circles · Wisconsin: dashed line, squares

USC

Offense · 2025: 38.9 · 94th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 21.0 · 74th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.0 · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 257.0 pts · 90th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 37% returning · 32nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Wisconsin

Offense · SP+ 2025: 17.4 · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 20.9 · 75th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.9 · 30th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 227.2 pts · 81st percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 40% returning · 36th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

USC's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 30
vs TCU · neutral site
L 27–30
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 56 recorded plays
vs UCLA
W 29–10
52%
Success rate
0.35
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 68 recorded plays
at Oregon
L 27–42
32%
Success rate
−0.02
PPA / play

The coaching staff

USC

Head coach: Lincoln Riley
career +18.3 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Luke Huard
career +28.1 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Gary Patterson
no career rating on file
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0

Wisconsin

Head coach: Luke Fickell
career +8.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Apyanac, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Jeff Grimes
career +29.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Mike Tressel
career +17.4 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Series tied 1–1 since 2000

2024 · USC 38, Wisconsin 21
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
2015 · Wisconsin 23, USC 21
Neutral site · Qualcomm Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

USC: 13 games
Wisconsin: 12 games

The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

USC's offense leads its matchup in success rate

Wisconsin has no clear answer on this matchup

No forecast yet

When each team has the ball

When USC has the ball

USC offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Wisconsin defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Wisconsin has the ball

Wisconsin offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

USC defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Jayden Maiava

King Miller

Makai Lemon

USC player production

Wisconsin player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

USC

Wisconsin

Recruiting

USC

Wisconsin

Season percentile profiles

USC

Wisconsin

USC's recent games

vs TCU · neutral site

vs UCLA

at Oregon

The coaching staff

USC

Wisconsin

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

USC's offense leads its matchup in