Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
2–4
vs
Fresno State
4–2
10:30 PM ET7:30 PM PTSnapdragon StadiumSan Diego, CA
Clear79°FN 7 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:30 PM PT · Updated 12:09 PM PT · National Weather Service
San Diego · local time (PT)
Kickoff hour
Clear79°FN 7 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
33%
San Diego State win probability
Fresno State 67%
Fresno State by 6.4
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · San Diego State's case
San Diego State's defense was in the 98th percentile for allowed per play last season. Fresno State's offense was in the 21st percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · Fresno State's answer
Fresno State's defense was in the 76th percentile for predicted points added (PPA) allowed per play last season. San Diego State's offense was in the 30th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives San Diego State a 33% chance to win and predicts Fresno State by 6.4 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Jayden Denegal · 96% of charted pass attempts
234 of 242 have a direction · 8 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 190 short · 44 deep · 8 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (45%). Right gives the most yards per attempt: 8.1 over 105 attempts with a result.
The San Diego State offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
143/244 · 59% season
Last game
New Mexico · Nov 28, 2025: 14/24, 162 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
RB · 13 games
Last game
North Texas · Dec 27, 2025: 15 carries, 60 yds, 0 TD
WR · 10 games
Last game
Boise State · Nov 15, 2025: 1 rec, −2 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden DenegalQB | 12 | 143 / 244 | 1,810 | 7.4 | 9 | 8 |
| Kyle CrumQB | 1 | 14 / 29 | 169 | 5.8 | 1 | 2 |
| Bert Emanuel Jr.QB | 6 | 9 / 16 | 74 | 4.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan NapierWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.J. WarnerQB | 10 | 192 / 277 | 2,030 | 7.3 | 13 | 11 |
| Carson ConklinQB | 4 | 47 / 96 | 354 | 3.7 | 1 | 2 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
San Diego State's line averages 317.6 lbs against Fresno State's 268.9 lbs front — an edge of 48.7 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego State OLSan Diego State OL vs Fresno State DL | 317.6 lbs | 268.9 lbs |
| Fresno State OLFresno State OL vs San Diego State DL | 305.0 lbs | 268.2 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
San Diego State: solid line, circles · Fresno State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 27
L 47–49
Play stats pending
Nov 28 · 66 recorded plays
L 17–23
41%
Success rate
−0.02
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 61 recorded plays
W 25–3
43%
Success rate
0.03
PPA / play
Sean Lewis
career −9.5 SP+ overall
Matt Johnson
career +8.2 SP+ offense
Demetrius Sumler
no career rating on file
Josh Davis
career +23.0 SP+ offense
Adam Breske
Co-defensive coordinator · career +27.5 SP+ defense
Nick Benedetto
career +27.5 SP+ defense
2025 · San Diego State 23, Fresno State 0
Valley Children's Stadium
2023 · San Diego State 33, Fresno State 18
Snapdragon Stadium
2022 · Fresno State 32, San Diego State 28
Valley Children's Stadium
2021 · Fresno State 30, San Diego State 20
Qualcomm Stadium
2019 · San Diego State 17, Fresno State 7
Qualcomm Stadium
2018 · Fresno State 23, San Diego State 14
Valley Children's Stadium
2017 · Fresno State 27, San Diego State 3
Qualcomm Stadium
2016 · San Diego State 17, Fresno State 3
Valley Children's Stadium
2015 · San Diego State 21, Fresno State 7
Qualcomm Stadium
2014 · Fresno State 24, San Diego State 13
Valley Children's Stadium
2013 · Fresno State 35, San Diego State 28
Qualcomm Stadium
2012 · Fresno State 52, San Diego State 40
Valley Children's Stadium
2011 · San Diego State 35, Fresno State 28
Qualcomm Stadium
2002 · Fresno State 16, San Diego State 14
Valley Children's Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season