Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
4–2
at
San Diego State
2–4
10:30 PM ET7:30 PM PTSnapdragon StadiumSan Diego, CA
Clear79°FN 7 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:30 PM PT · Updated 12:09 PM PT · National Weather Service
San Diego · local time (PT)
Kickoff hour
Clear79°FN 7 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
67%
Fresno State win probability
San Diego State 33%
Fresno State by 6.4
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Fresno State's case
Fresno State's defense was in the 76th percentile for allowed per play last season. San Diego State's offense was in the 30th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball02 · San Diego State's answer
San Diego State's defense was in the 98th percentile for predicted points added (PPA) allowed per play last season. Fresno State's offense was in the 21st percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives Fresno State a 67% chance to win and predicts Fresno State by 6.4 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.1 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
E.J. Warner · 73% of charted pass attempts
244 of 254 have a direction · 10 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 229 short · 15 deep · 10 not stated
The Fresno State offense in 2025
QB · 10 games
192/277 · 69% season
Last game
Miami (OH) · Dec 27, 2025: 15/22, 219 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
RB · 13 games
Last game
Miami (OH) · Dec 27, 2025: 6 carries, 20 yds, 0 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Miami (OH) · Dec 27, 2025: 7 rec, 143 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.J. WarnerQB | 10 | 192 / 277 | 2,030 | 7.3 | 13 | 11 |
| Carson ConklinQB | 4 | 47 / 96 | 354 | 3.7 | 1 | 2 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden DenegalQB | 12 | 143 / 244 | 1,810 | 7.4 | 9 | 8 |
| Kyle CrumQB | 1 | 14 / 29 | 169 | 5.8 | 1 | 2 |
| Bert Emanuel Jr.QB | 6 | 9 / 16 | 74 | 4.6 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan NapierWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Fresno State's line averages 305.0 lbs against San Diego State's 268.2 lbs front — an edge of 36.8 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Fresno State OLFresno State OL vs San Diego State DL | 305.0 lbs | 268.2 lbs |
| San Diego State OLSan Diego State OL vs Fresno State DL | 317.6 lbs | 268.9 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Fresno State: solid line, circles · San Diego State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 27
W 18–3
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 76 recorded plays
W 41–14
38%
Success rate
0.03
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 63 recorded plays
L 17–28
24%
Success rate
0.08
PPA / play
Josh Davis
career +23.0 SP+ offense
Adam Breske
Co-defensive coordinator · career +27.5 SP+ defense
Nick Benedetto
career +27.5 SP+ defense
Sean Lewis
career −9.5 SP+ overall
Matt Johnson
career +8.2 SP+ offense
Demetrius Sumler
no career rating on file
2025 · San Diego State 23, Fresno State 0
Valley Children's Stadium
2023 · San Diego State 33, Fresno State 18
Snapdragon Stadium
2022 · Fresno State 32, San Diego State 28
Valley Children's Stadium
2021 · Fresno State 30, San Diego State 20
Qualcomm Stadium
2019 · San Diego State 17, Fresno State 7
Qualcomm Stadium
2018 · Fresno State 23, San Diego State 14
Valley Children's Stadium
2017 · Fresno State 27, San Diego State 3
Qualcomm Stadium
2016 · San Diego State 17, Fresno State 3
Valley Children's Stadium
2015 · San Diego State 21, Fresno State 7
Qualcomm Stadium
2014 · Fresno State 24, San Diego State 13
Valley Children's Stadium
2013 · Fresno State 35, San Diego State 28
Qualcomm Stadium
2012 · Fresno State 52, San Diego State 40
Valley Children's Stadium
2011 · San Diego State 35, Fresno State 28
Qualcomm Stadium
2002 · Fresno State 16, San Diego State 14
Valley Children's Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season