01 · Nevada's case
No matchup to cite
There are not enough rated offense and defense numbers last season to compare Nevada and North Dakota State.
See when each team has the ballSaturday, October 17
Compare these teams
Nevada
2–3
at
North Dakota State
5–1
7:00 PM ET6:00 PM CTFargodomeFargo, ND
Weather
Played indoors at Fargodome.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Game forecast
26%
Nevada win probability
North Dakota State 74%
North Dakota State by 10.6
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±16.5 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
The game in a minute
02 · What could swing it
Small samples behind these numbers
Completed games last season: Nevada 12, North Dakota State 0.
See the evidence windowNot enough evidence yet
When each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When Nevada has the ball
- Nevada offense
- 5th
- North Dakota State defense
- Not rated
Show the underlying numbers
- Nevada offensive per play
- 0.035th percentile · #127 nationally
- North Dakota State PPA allowed per play
- Not rated
- Nevada
- 37%12th percentile · #120 nationally
- North Dakota State success rate allowed
- Not rated
- Nevada points per game
- 17.66th percentile · #128 nationally
- North Dakota State per game
- Not rated
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
Nevada offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.17
- Rush success
- 34.2%
North Dakota State defense · 2025 season · No completed games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- not available
- Rush success allowed
- not available
When North Dakota State has the ball
- North Dakota State offense
- Not rated
- Nevada defense
- 27th
Show the underlying numbers
- North Dakota State offensive PPA per play
- Not rated
- Nevada PPA allowed per play
- 0.1927th percentile · #89 nationally
- North Dakota State success rate
- Not rated
- Nevada success rate allowed
- 43%37th percentile · #86 nationally
- North Dakota State points per game
- Not rated
- Nevada points allowed per game
- 27.536th percentile · #87 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
North Dakota State offense · 2025 season · No completed games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- not available
- Rush success
- not available
Nevada defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.29
- Rush success allowed
- 40.2%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Carter Jones · 56% of charted pass attempts
Throwing right
- Share of charted plays
- 50%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 82 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 6.8
- over 81 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 65%
- over 81 attempts with a result
163 of 171 have a direction · 8 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 147 short · 16 deep · 8 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (50%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 7.4 over 34 attempts with a result.
Who's driving the offense?
The Nevada offense in 2025
Carter Jones
QB · 9 games
111/173 · 64% season
- Passing yards
- 1,001
- Touchdowns
- 6
- Interceptions
- 8
Last game
UNLV · Nov 29, 2025: 17/25, 105 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
Caleb Ramseur
RB · 12 games
- Carries
- 139
- Rushing yards
- 683
- Touchdowns
- 5
Last game
UNLV · Nov 29, 2025: 15 carries, 95 yds, 2 TD
Jett Carpenter
TE · 12 games
- Receptions
- 35
- Receiving yards
- 374
- Touchdowns
- 2
Last game
UNLV · Nov 29, 2025: 5 rec, 56 yds, 0 TD
Nevada player tables
Who is producing
Nevada player production
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter JonesQB | 9 | 111 / 173 | 1,001 | 5.8 | 6 | 8 |
| Chubba PurdyQB | 8 | 44 / 86 | 577 | 6.7 | 3 | 8 |
| AJ BiancoQB | 6 | 27 / 45 | 188 | 4.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Marcus BellonWR | 2 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
North Dakota State player tables
Who is producing
North Dakota State player production
2025 evidence · 0 games in this window · 0 with recorded rows in this view
No completed games are available in this evidence window.
In the trenches
Nevada's line averages 298.8 lbs against North Dakota State's 268.0 lbs front — an edge of 30.8 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada OLNevada OL vs North Dakota State DL | 298.8 lbs | 268.0 lbs |
| North Dakota State OLNorth Dakota State OL vs Nevada DL | 300.1 lbs | 266.5 lbs |
- Nevada
- North Dakota State
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
How these teams stack up
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Nevada
- Points per game
- 17.6#128 nationally · 6th percentile · 12 games
- Points allowed per game
- 27.5#87 nationally · 36th percentile · 12 games
- Returning production
- 66% of 2024 PPA returns · 68th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 48% · 107 of 107 with a class year
North Dakota State
not rated
Recruiting
Nevada
- 2025 signing class · #88 nationally
- 36th percentile · 159.3 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #110 nationally
- 19th percentile · −0.77 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #119 nationally
- 11th percentile · 488.7
North Dakota State
not rated
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- Nevada Offense · SP+ 2025: 14.2, 2nd percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- North Dakota State Offense · SP+ 2025: not rated (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Nevada Defense · SP+ 2025: 28.7, 40th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- North Dakota State Defense · SP+ 2025: not rated (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Nevada Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.0, 73rd percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- North Dakota State Special teams · SP+ 2025: not rated (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Nevada Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 159.3 pts, 36th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- North Dakota State Recruiting · 2025 signing class: not rated (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Nevada Experience · returning production 2025: 66% returning, 68th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
- North Dakota State Experience · returning production 2025: not rated (CFBD, 2025 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Nevada: solid line, circles
Nevada
- Offense · 2025
- 14.2 · 2nd percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 28.7 · 40th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- 1.0 · 73rd percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 159.3 pts · 36th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 66% returning · 68th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
North Dakota State
not rated
Nevada's recent games
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 51 recorded plays
vs UNLV
L 17–42
45%
Success rate
0.01
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 60 recorded plays
at Wyoming
W 13–7
38%
Success rate
0.10
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 39 recorded plays
vs San José State
W 55–10
49%
Success rate
0.47
PPA / play
The coaching staff
Nevada
- Head coach
Jeff Choate
career −14.3 SP+ overall
- Offensive coordinator
Brett Bartolone
career +14.2 SP+ offense
David Gilbertson
career +14.2 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Kane Ioane
career +26.1 SP+ defense
North Dakota State
- Head coach
Tim Polasek
no career rating on file
- Offensive coordinator
- Not on file
- Defensive coordinator
- Not on file
Head-to-head
No meetings since 2000
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2025 full season
- Nevada: 12 games
- North Dakota State: 0 games
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- The game in a minute: 2025 full season · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD