Saturday, October 17

Wyoming

3–3

Northern Illinois

0–5

3:30 PM ET1:30 PM MTWar Memorial StadiumLaramie, WY

Weather

Clear61°FW 15 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 1:30 PM MT · Updated 2:07 PM MT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Laramie · local time (MT)

Kickoff hour

Clear61°FW 15 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

63%

Wyoming win probability

Northern Illinois 37%

Wyoming by 5.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Wyoming's case

Wyoming's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Wyoming's defense was in the 82nd percentile for success rate allowed last season. Northern Illinois's offense was in the 4th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Northern Illinois's answer

Northern Illinois's defense leads its matchup in

Northern Illinois's defense was in the 53rd percentile for points allowed per game last season. Wyoming's offense was in the 4th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

Northern Illinois is winless so far

Northern Illinois's record this season is 0–5.

See the records

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Wyoming has the ball

Wyoming offense: 8th
Northern Illinois defense: 27th

Show the underlying numbers

Wyoming offensive per play: 0.058th percentile · #123 nationally
Northern Illinois PPA allowed per play: 0.1927th percentile · #89 nationally
Wyoming success rate: 38%13th percentile · #118 nationally
Northern Illinois success rate allowed: 44%20th percentile · #109 nationally
Wyoming points per game: 16.04th percentile · #131 nationally
Northern Illinois points allowed per game: 24.353rd percentile · #64 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Wyoming offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.20
Rush success: 35.6%

Northern Illinois defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.20
Rush success allowed: 49.0%

When Northern Illinois has the ball

Northern Illinois offense: 8th
Wyoming defense: 80th

Show the underlying numbers

Northern Illinois offensive PPA per play: 0.058th percentile · #123 nationally
Wyoming PPA allowed per play: 0.0780th percentile · #24 nationally
Northern Illinois success rate: 35%4th percentile · #131 nationally
Wyoming success rate allowed: 38%82nd percentile · #25 nationally
Northern Illinois points per game: 17.15th percentile · #129 nationally
Wyoming points allowed per game: 20.579th percentile · #30 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Northern Illinois offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.24
Rush success: 42.8%

Wyoming defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.29
Rush success allowed: 37.0%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Kaden Anderson · 88% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 43%
Usage: charted in this direction: 139 attempts
Yards / attempt: 5.4; over 139 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 58%; over 139 attempts with a result

327 of 338 have a direction · 11 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 287 short · 40 deep · 11 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Wyoming offense in 2025

Kaden Anderson

QB · 12 games

189/336 · 56% season

Passing yards: 1,971
Touchdowns: 12
Interceptions: 10

Last game

Hawai'i · Nov 29, 2025: 3/5, 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

Samuel Harris

RB · 11 games

Carries: 100
Rushing yards: 552
Touchdown: 1

Last game

Nevada · Nov 22, 2025: 3 carries, 6 yds, 0 TD

Chris Durr Jr.

WR · 10 games

Receptions: 46
Receiving yards: 513
Touchdowns: 4

Last game

Nevada · Nov 22, 2025: 6 rec, 34 yds, 0 TD

Wyoming player tables

Who is producing

Wyoming player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Wyoming — Passing production
Player
Kaden AndersonQB	12	189 / 336	1,971	5.9	12	10
Mason DrubeQB	3	20 / 38	187	4.9	0	1
Landon SimsQB	4	6 / 8	38	4.8	1	0
Evan SvobodaTE	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	1

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Northern Illinois player tables

Who is producing

Northern Illinois player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Northern Illinois — Passing production
Player
Josh HolstQB	7	78 / 130	689	5.3	4	3
Brady DavidsonQB	8	40 / 87	384	4.4	3	3
Jalen MaconQB	3	9 / 21	105	5.0	1	0
Jackson ProctorQB	1	2 / 6	8	1.3	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Wyoming's line averages 304.8 lbs against Northern Illinois's 270.1 lbs front — an edge of 34.7 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Wyoming OLWyoming OL vs Northern Illinois DL	304.8 lbs	270.1 lbs
Northern Illinois OLNorthern Illinois OL vs Wyoming DL	299.6 lbs	271.7 lbs

Wyoming
Northern Illinois

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Wyoming

Points per game: 16.0#131 nationally · 4th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 20.5#30 nationally · 79th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 77% of 2024 PPA returns · 80th percentile
Upperclassmen: 36% · 116 of 116 with a class year

Northern Illinois

Points per game: 17.1#129 nationally · 5th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 24.3#64 nationally · 53rd percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 53% of 2024 PPA returns · 52nd percentile
Upperclassmen: 34% · 113 of 113 with a class year

Recruiting

Wyoming

2025 signing class · #89 nationally: 35th percentile · 159.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #96 nationally: 30th percentile · −0.57 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #117 nationally: 13th percentile · 489.3

Northern Illinois

2025 signing class · #84 nationally: 39th percentile · 164.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #86 nationally: 37th percentile · −0.47 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #125 nationally: 7th percentile · 471.0

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Wyoming: solid line, circles · Northern Illinois: dashed line, squares

Wyoming

Offense · 2025: 15.3 · 4th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 24.7 · 59th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −1.8 · 6th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 159.1 pts · 35th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 77% returning · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Northern Illinois

Offense · SP+ 2025: 12.0 · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 28.1 · 46th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: −0.6 · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 164.1 pts · 39th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 53% returning · 52nd percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Wyoming's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 67 recorded plays
at Hawai'i
L 7–27
33%
Success rate
−0.07
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 66 recorded plays
vs Nevada
L 7–13
33%
Success rate
−0.08
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 63 recorded plays
at Fresno State
L 3–24
29%
Success rate
−0.08
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Wyoming

Head coach: Jay Sawvel
career −12.4 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Christian Taylor
no career rating on file
Defensive coordinator: Aaron Bohl
career +27.8 SP+ defense

Northern Illinois

Head coach: Rob Harley
First season as Northern Illinois's head coach · no career rating on file
Offensive coordinator: Quinn Sanders
career +25.8 SP+ offense; Tony Petersen
Co-offensive coordinator · career +25.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Not on file

Head-to-head

Wyoming leads 2–0 since 2000

2021 · Wyoming 50, Northern Illinois 43
Huskie Stadium
2016 · Wyoming 40, Northern Illinois 34
War Memorial Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Wyoming: 12 games
Northern Illinois: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Wyoming's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

Northern Illinois's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

Northern Illinois is winless so far

When each team has the ball

When Wyoming has the ball

Wyoming offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Northern Illinois defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Northern Illinois has the ball

Northern Illinois offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Wyoming defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Kaden Anderson

Samuel Harris

Chris Durr Jr.

Wyoming player production

Northern Illinois player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Wyoming

Northern Illinois

Recruiting

Wyoming

Northern Illinois

Season percentile profiles

Wyoming

Northern Illinois

Wyoming's recent games

at Hawai'i

vs Nevada

at Fresno State

The coaching staff

Wyoming

Northern Illinois

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Wyoming's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Northern Illinois's defense leads its matchup in