Saturday, October 17
Compare these teams
0–5
at
Wyoming
3–3
3:30 PM ET1:30 PM MTWar Memorial StadiumLaramie, WY
Clear61°FW 15 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 1:30 PM MT · Updated 2:07 PM MT · National Weather Service
Laramie · local time (MT)
Kickoff hour
Clear61°FW 15 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
37%
Northern Illinois win probability
Wyoming 63%
Wyoming by 5.0
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.5 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Northern Illinois's case
Northern Illinois's defense was in the 53rd percentile for points allowed per game last season. Wyoming's offense was in the 4th percentile for points per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Wyoming's answer
Wyoming's defense was in the 82nd percentile for success rate allowed last season. Northern Illinois's offense was in the 4th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers03 · What could swing it
Northern Illinois's leading passer threw 53% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Josh Holst · 53% of charted pass attempts
128 of 130 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 114 short · 14 deep · 2 not stated
The Northern Illinois offense in 2025
QB · 7 games
78/130 · 60% season
Last game
Toledo · Nov 5, 2025: 5/13, 87 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
RB · 12 games
Last game
Kent State · Nov 28, 2025: 30 carries, 185 yds, 2 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Kent State · Nov 28, 2025: 2 rec, 12 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh HolstQB | 7 | 78 / 130 | 689 | 5.3 | 4 | 3 |
| Brady DavidsonQB | 8 | 40 / 87 | 384 | 4.4 | 3 | 3 |
| Jalen MaconQB | 3 | 9 / 21 | 105 | 5.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jackson ProctorQB | 1 | 2 / 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaden AndersonQB | 12 | 189 / 336 | 1,971 | 5.9 | 12 | 10 |
| Mason DrubeQB | 3 | 20 / 38 | 187 | 4.9 | 0 | 1 |
| Landon SimsQB | 4 | 6 / 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 1 | 0 |
| Evan SvobodaTE | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Northern Illinois's line averages 299.6 lbs against Wyoming's 271.7 lbs front — an edge of 27.9 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois OLNorthern Illinois OL vs Wyoming DL | 299.6 lbs | 271.7 lbs |
| Wyoming OLWyoming OL vs Northern Illinois DL | 304.8 lbs | 270.1 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Northern Illinois: solid line, circles · Wyoming: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 28 · 69 recorded plays
L 31–35
55%
Success rate
0.16
PPA / play
Nov 18 · 58 recorded plays
L 19–35
28%
Success rate
0.13
PPA / play
Nov 12 · 33 recorded plays
W 45–3
48%
Success rate
0.57
PPA / play
Rob Harley
First season as Northern Illinois's head coach · no career rating on file
Quinn Sanders
career +25.8 SP+ offense
Tony Petersen
Co-offensive coordinator · career +25.8 SP+ offense
Jay Sawvel
career −12.4 SP+ overall
Christian Taylor
no career rating on file
Aaron Bohl
career +27.8 SP+ defense
2021 · Wyoming 50, Northern Illinois 43
Huskie Stadium
2016 · Wyoming 40, Northern Illinois 34
War Memorial Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season