Saturday, October 17

Pittsburgh

5–1

Boston College

2–3

12:00 PM ETAlumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)Chestnut Hill, MA

Weather

Partly cloudy48°FNW 18 mphGusts 38 mphPrecip 7%

At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:04 PM ET · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Chestnut Hill · local time (ET)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy48°FNW 18 mphGusts 38 mphPrecip 7%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

74%

Pittsburgh win probability

Boston College 26%

Pittsburgh by 9.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Pittsburgh's case

Pittsburgh's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Pittsburgh's offense was in the 86th percentile for points per game last season. Boston College's defense was in the 10th percentile for per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Boston College's answer

Boston College has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its defense's numbers stood out against Pittsburgh's offense last season.

03 · What could swing it

Pittsburgh leans on its top passer

Pittsburgh's leading passer threw 65% of the team's charted attempts last season.

See where they attack

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Pittsburgh has the ball

Pittsburgh offense: 48th
Boston College defense: 15th

Show the underlying numbers

Pittsburgh offensive per play: 0.1748th percentile · #61 nationally
Boston College PPA allowed per play: 0.2315th percentile · #115 nationally
Pittsburgh: 40%27th percentile · #100 nationally
Boston College success rate allowed: 43%34th percentile · #90 nationally
Pittsburgh points per game: 33.786th percentile · #20 nationally
Boston College points allowed per game: 32.810th percentile · #123 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Pittsburgh offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.46
Rush success: 39.7%

Boston College defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.47
Rush success allowed: 47.5%

When Boston College has the ball

Boston College offense: 43rd
Pittsburgh defense: 80th

Show the underlying numbers

Boston College offensive PPA per play: 0.1643rd percentile · #72 nationally
Pittsburgh PPA allowed per play: 0.0780th percentile · #24 nationally
Boston College success rate: 43%56th percentile · #61 nationally
Pittsburgh success rate allowed: 36%93rd percentile · #11 nationally
Boston College points per game: 25.438th percentile · #85 nationally
Pittsburgh points allowed per game: 24.850th percentile · #68 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Boston College offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.25
Rush success: 41.0%

Pittsburgh defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.31
Rush success allowed: 38.6%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Mason Heintschel · 65% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 37%
Usage: charted in this direction: 100 attempts
Yards / attempt: 5.9; over 99 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 65%; over 99 attempts with a result

271 of 276 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 245 short · 26 deep · 5 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Pittsburgh offense in 2025

Mason Heintschel

QB · 10 games

201/316 · 64% season

Passing yards: 2,357
Touchdowns: 16
Interceptions: 8

Last game

East Carolina · Dec 27, 2025: 25/40, 256 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Ja'Kyrian Turner

RB · 12 games

Carries: 140
Rushing yards: 747
Touchdowns: 7

Last game

East Carolina · Dec 27, 2025: 16 carries, 93 yds, 0 TD

Raphael Williams

WR · 13 games

Receptions: 52
Receiving yards: 741
Touchdowns: 7

Last game

East Carolina · Dec 27, 2025: 5 rec, 57 yds, 1 TD

Pittsburgh player tables

Who is producing

Pittsburgh player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Pittsburgh — Passing production
Player
Mason HeintschelQB	10	201 / 316	2,357	7.5	16	8
Eli HolsteinQB	7	77 / 125	1,081	8.6	12	6
Cole GonzalesQB	3	11 / 22	118	5.4	1	1
Bryce YatesWR	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Boston College player tables

Who is producing

Boston College player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Boston College — Passing production
Player
Dylan LonerganQB	10	190 / 284	2,025	7.1	12	5
Grayson JamesQB	7	87 / 151	1,196	7.9	7	5
Shaker ReisigQB	3	10 / 19	141	7.4	1	2

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Pittsburgh's line averages 310.3 lbs against Boston College's 265.9 lbs front — an edge of 44.4 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Pittsburgh OLPittsburgh OL vs Boston College DL	310.3 lbs	265.9 lbs
Boston College OLBoston College OL vs Pittsburgh DL	308.7 lbs	267.1 lbs

Pittsburgh
Boston College

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Pittsburgh

Points per game: 33.7#20 nationally · 86th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 24.8#68 nationally · 50th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 75% of 2024 PPA returns · 77th percentile
Upperclassmen: 40% · 116 of 116 with a class year

Boston College

Points per game: 25.4#85 nationally · 38th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 32.8#123 nationally · 10th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 62% of 2024 PPA returns · 64th percentile
Upperclassmen: 38% · 124 of 124 with a class year

Recruiting

Pittsburgh

2025 signing class · #51 nationally: 63rd percentile · 199.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #48 nationally: 65th percentile · 0.28 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #56 nationally: 59th percentile · 681.2

Boston College

2025 signing class · #59 nationally: 57th percentile · 195.1 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #69 nationally: 50th percentile · 0.03 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #69 nationally: 49th percentile · 650.1

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Pittsburgh: solid line, circles · Boston College: dashed line, squares

Pittsburgh

Offense · 2025: 31.6 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 23.5 · 66th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.4 · 56th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 199.3 pts · 63rd percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 75% returning · 77th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Boston College

Offense · SP+ 2025: 23.3 · 29th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 33.1 · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.3 · 79th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 195.1 pts · 57th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 62% returning · 64th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Pittsburgh's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 27
vs East Carolina · neutral site
L 17–23
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 42 recorded plays
vs Miami
L 7–38
29%
Success rate
0.19
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 69 recorded plays
at Georgia Tech
W 42–28
45%
Success rate
0.17
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Pittsburgh

Head coach: Pat Narduzzi
career +6.8 SP+ overall
Photo: Crazypaco, CC BY-SA 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Kade Bell
career +30.5 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Cory Sanders
no career rating on file

Boston College

Head coach: Bill O'Brien
career +3.9 SP+ overall
Photo: BenJones88, CC BY-SA 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Ted Roof
career +26.3 SP+ defense
Photo: Thomson, CC0

Head-to-head

Pittsburgh leads 7–4 since 2000

2025 · Pittsburgh 48, Boston College 7
Acrisure Stadium
2024 · Boston College 34, Pittsburgh 23
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
2023 · Pittsburgh 24, Boston College 16
Acrisure Stadium
2020 · Boston College 31, Pittsburgh 30
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
2019 · Boston College 26, Pittsburgh 19
Acrisure Stadium
2014 · Pittsburgh 30, Boston College 20
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
2004 · Pittsburgh 20, Boston College 17
Acrisure Stadium
2003 · Pittsburgh 24, Boston College 13
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
2002 · Pittsburgh 19, Boston College 16
Acrisure Stadium
2001 · Boston College 45, Pittsburgh 7
2000 · Pittsburgh 42, Boston College 26

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Pittsburgh: 13 games
Boston College: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Pittsburgh's offense leads its matchup in scoring

Boston College has no clear answer on this matchup

Pittsburgh leans on its top passer

When each team has the ball

When Pittsburgh has the ball

Pittsburgh offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Boston College defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Boston College has the ball

Boston College offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Pittsburgh defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Mason Heintschel

Ja'Kyrian Turner

Raphael Williams

Pittsburgh player production

Boston College player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Pittsburgh

Boston College

Recruiting

Pittsburgh

Boston College

Season percentile profiles

Pittsburgh

Boston College

Pittsburgh's recent games

vs East Carolina · neutral site

vs Miami

at Georgia Tech

The coaching staff

Pittsburgh

Boston College

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources