01 · Pittsburgh's case
Pittsburgh's offense leads its matchup in scoring
Pittsburgh's offense was in the 86th percentile for points per game last season. Boston College's defense was in the 10th percentile for per game.
See the underlying numbersSaturday, October 17
Compare these teams
Boston College
2–3
vs
Pittsburgh
5–1
12:00 PM ETAlumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)Chestnut Hill, MA
Weather
Partly cloudy48°FNW 18 mphGusts 38 mphPrecip 7%
At kickoff · 12:00 PM ET · Updated 2:04 PM ET · National Weather Service
Hour by hour
Chestnut Hill · local time (ET)
Kickoff hour
Partly cloudy48°FNW 18 mphGusts 38 mphPrecip 7%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
Game forecast
26%
Boston College win probability
Pittsburgh 74%
Pittsburgh by 9.0
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.2 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
The game in a minute
02 · Boston College's answer
Boston College has no clear answer on this matchup
None of its defense's numbers stood out against Pittsburgh's offense last season.
03 · What could swing it
Boston College leans on its top passer
Boston College's leading passer threw 62% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackWhen each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When Boston College has the ball
- Boston College offense
- 43rd
- Pittsburgh defense
- 80th
Show the underlying numbers
- Boston College offensive per play
- 0.1643rd percentile · #72 nationally
- Pittsburgh PPA allowed per play
- 0.0780th percentile · #24 nationally
- Boston College
- 43%56th percentile · #61 nationally
- Pittsburgh success rate allowed
- 36%93rd percentile · #11 nationally
- Boston College points per game
- 25.438th percentile · #85 nationally
- Pittsburgh points allowed per game
- 24.850th percentile · #68 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
Boston College offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.25
- Rush success
- 41.0%
Pittsburgh defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.31
- Rush success allowed
- 38.6%
When Pittsburgh has the ball
- Pittsburgh offense
- 48th
- Boston College defense
- 15th
Show the underlying numbers
- Pittsburgh offensive PPA per play
- 0.1748th percentile · #61 nationally
- Boston College PPA allowed per play
- 0.2315th percentile · #115 nationally
- Pittsburgh success rate
- 40%27th percentile · #100 nationally
- Boston College success rate allowed
- 43%34th percentile · #90 nationally
- Pittsburgh points per game
- 33.786th percentile · #20 nationally
- Boston College points allowed per game
- 32.810th percentile · #123 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Pittsburgh offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.46
- Rush success
- 39.7%
Boston College defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.47
- Rush success allowed
- 47.5%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Dylan Lonergan · 62% of charted pass attempts
Throwing right
- Share of charted plays
- 38%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 107 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 6.3
- over 107 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 65%
- over 107 attempts with a result
278 of 283 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 251 short · 27 deep · 5 not stated
Who's driving the offense?
The Boston College offense in 2025
Dylan Lonergan
QB · 10 games
190/284 · 67% season
- Passing yards
- 2,025
- Touchdowns
- 12
- Interceptions
- 5
Last game
Syracuse · Nov 29, 2025: 2/2, 8 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
Turbo Richard
RB · 11 games
- Carries
- 145
- Rushing yards
- 749
- Touchdowns
- 9
Last game
Syracuse · Nov 29, 2025: 15 carries, 102 yds, 2 TD
Lewis Bond
WR · 12 games
- Receptions
- 89
- Receiving yards
- 1,010
- Touchdown
- 1
Last game
Syracuse · Nov 29, 2025: 8 rec, 171 yds, 0 TD
Boston College player tables
Who is producing
Boston College player production
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan LonerganQB | 10 | 190 / 284 | 2,025 | 7.1 | 12 | 5 |
| Grayson JamesQB | 7 | 87 / 151 | 1,196 | 7.9 | 7 | 5 |
| Shaker ReisigQB | 3 | 10 / 19 | 141 | 7.4 | 1 | 2 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Pittsburgh player tables
Who is producing
Pittsburgh player production
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason HeintschelQB | 10 | 201 / 316 | 2,357 | 7.5 | 16 | 8 |
| Eli HolsteinQB | 7 | 77 / 125 | 1,081 | 8.6 | 12 | 6 |
| Cole GonzalesQB | 3 | 11 / 22 | 118 | 5.4 | 1 | 1 |
| Bryce YatesWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
In the trenches
Boston College's line averages 308.7 lbs against Pittsburgh's 267.1 lbs front — an edge of 41.6 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Boston College OLBoston College OL vs Pittsburgh DL | 308.7 lbs | 267.1 lbs |
| Pittsburgh OLPittsburgh OL vs Boston College DL | 310.3 lbs | 265.9 lbs |
- Boston College
- Pittsburgh
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
How these teams stack up
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Boston College
- Points per game
- 25.4#85 nationally · 38th percentile · 12 games
- Points allowed per game
- 32.8#123 nationally · 10th percentile · 12 games
- Returning production
- 62% of 2024 PPA returns · 64th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 38% · 124 of 124 with a class year
Pittsburgh
- Points per game
- 33.7#20 nationally · 86th percentile · 13 games
- Points allowed per game
- 24.8#68 nationally · 50th percentile · 13 games
- Returning production
- 75% of 2024 PPA returns · 77th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 40% · 116 of 116 with a class year
Recruiting
Boston College
- 2025 signing class · #59 nationally
- 57th percentile · 195.1 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #69 nationally
- 50th percentile · 0.03 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #69 nationally
- 49th percentile · 650.1
Pittsburgh
- 2025 signing class · #51 nationally
- 63rd percentile · 199.3 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #48 nationally
- 65th percentile · 0.28 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #56 nationally
- 59th percentile · 681.2
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- Boston College Offense · SP+ 2025: 23.3, 29th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Pittsburgh Offense · SP+ 2025: 31.6, 69th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Boston College Defense · SP+ 2025: 33.1, 21st percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Pittsburgh Defense · SP+ 2025: 23.5, 66th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Boston College Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.3, 79th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Pittsburgh Special teams · SP+ 2025: 0.4, 56th percentile (CFBD, 2025 season to date)
- Boston College Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 195.1 pts, 57th percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Pittsburgh Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 199.3 pts, 63rd percentile (CFBD, 2025 signing class)
- Boston College Experience · returning production 2025: 62% returning, 64th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
- Pittsburgh Experience · returning production 2025: 75% returning, 77th percentile (CFBD, 2025 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Boston College: solid line, circles · Pittsburgh: dashed line, squares
Boston College
- Offense · 2025
- 23.3 · 29th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 33.1 · 21st percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- 1.3 · 79th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 195.1 pts · 57th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 62% returning · 64th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Pittsburgh
- Offense · SP+ 2025
- 31.6 · 69th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2025
- 23.5 · 66th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2025
- 0.4 · 56th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 season to date
- Recruiting · 2025 signing class
- 199.3 pts · 63rd percentile
- CFBD, 2025 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2025
- 75% returning · 77th percentile
- CFBD, 2025 roster
Boston College's recent games
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 55 recorded plays
at Syracuse
W 34–12
40%
Success rate
0.34
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 68 recorded plays
vs Georgia Tech
L 34–36
47%
Success rate
0.40
PPA / play
Nov 8 · 65 recorded plays
vs SMU
L 13–45
48%
Success rate
−0.18
PPA / play
The coaching staff
Boston College
- Head coach
- Offensive coordinator
- Not on file
- Defensive coordinator
Pittsburgh
- Head coach
- Offensive coordinator
Kade Bell
career +30.5 SP+ offense
- Defensive coordinator
Cory Sanders
no career rating on file
Head-to-head
Pittsburgh leads 7–4 since 2000
2025 · Pittsburgh 48, Boston College 7
Acrisure Stadium
2024 · Boston College 34, Pittsburgh 23
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
2023 · Pittsburgh 24, Boston College 16
Acrisure Stadium
2020 · Boston College 31, Pittsburgh 30
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
2019 · Boston College 26, Pittsburgh 19
Acrisure Stadium
2014 · Pittsburgh 30, Boston College 20
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
2004 · Pittsburgh 20, Boston College 17
Acrisure Stadium
2003 · Pittsburgh 24, Boston College 13
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
2002 · Pittsburgh 19, Boston College 16
Acrisure Stadium
2001 · Boston College 45, Pittsburgh 7
2000 · Pittsburgh 42, Boston College 26
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2025 full season
- Boston College: 12 games
- Pittsburgh: 13 games
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
- The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD