Saturday, October 17

Texas

4–1 · AP #7

Florida

4–2

12:00 PM ET11:00 AM CTDKR-Texas Memorial StadiumAustin, TX

Weather

Partly cloudy68°FN 13 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 11:00 AM CT · Updated 1:36 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Austin · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy68°FN 13 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

79%

Texas win probability

Florida 21%

Texas by 11.3

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Texas's case

Texas's defense leads its matchup in

Texas's defense was in the 80th percentile for points allowed per game last season. Florida's offense was in the 18th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Florida's answer

Florida has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stood out against Texas's defense last season.

03 · What could swing it

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 25 mph at kickoff.

See the weather

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Texas has the ball

Texas offense: 56th
Florida defense: 40th

Show the underlying numbers

Texas offensive per play: 0.1856th percentile · #55 nationally
Florida PPA allowed per play: 0.1740th percentile · #76 nationally
Texas: 40%30th percentile · #95 nationally
Florida success rate allowed: 43%33rd percentile · #91 nationally
Texas points per game: 30.570th percentile · #41 nationally
Florida points allowed per game: 24.056th percentile · #60 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Texas offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.44
Rush success: 37.0%

Florida defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.30
Rush success allowed: 45.1%

When Florida has the ball

Florida offense: 36th
Texas defense: 67th

Show the underlying numbers

Florida offensive PPA per play: 0.1436th percentile · #85 nationally
Texas PPA allowed per play: 0.1067th percentile · #39 nationally
Florida success rate: 43%55th percentile · #62 nationally
Texas success rate allowed: 39%69th percentile · #43 nationally
Florida points per game: 21.618th percentile · #111 nationally
Texas points allowed per game: 20.380th percentile · #28 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Florida offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 45.5%

Texas defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.26
Rush success allowed: 38.0%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Arch Manning · 96% of charted pass attempts

1 of 387 throws names no passer

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 42%
Usage: charted in this direction: 153 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.0; over 153 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 66%; over 153 attempts with a result

364 of 371 have a direction · 7 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 311 short · 53 deep · 7 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Texas offense in 2025

Arch Manning

QB · 13 games

248/404 · 61% season

Passing yards: 3,163
Touchdowns: 26
Interceptions: 7

Last game

Michigan · Dec 31, 2025: 21/34, 221 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

Tre Wisner

RB · 9 games

Carries: 131
Rushing yards: 597
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Texas A&M · Nov 28, 2025: 19 carries, 155 yds, 0 TD

Ryan Wingo

WR · 13 games

Receptions: 54
Receiving yards: 834
Touchdowns: 7

Last game

Michigan · Dec 31, 2025: 4 rec, 64 yds, 0 TD

Texas player tables

Who is producing

Texas player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Texas — Passing production
Player
Arch ManningQB	13	248 / 404	3,163	7.8	26	7
Matthew CaldwellQB	4	8 / 11	85	7.7	1	0
Ryan WingoWR	2	0 / 2	0	0.0	0	0
Karle Lacey Jr.QB	1	1 / 1	7	7.0	0	0
Parker LivingstoneWR	1	1 / 1	4	4.0	1	0

5 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Florida player tables

Who is producing

Florida player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Florida — Passing production
Player
D.J. LagwayQB	12	213 / 337	2,264	6.7	16	14
Tramell Jones Jr.QB	2	21 / 35	191	5.5	2	0

2 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Texas's line averages 319.4 lbs against Florida's 293.9 lbs front — an edge of 25.5 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Texas OLTexas OL vs Florida DL	319.4 lbs	293.9 lbs
Florida OLFlorida OL vs Texas DL	311.7 lbs	294.4 lbs

Texas
Florida

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Texas

Points per game: 30.5#41 nationally · 70th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 20.3#28 nationally · 80th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 28% of 2024 PPA returns · 28th percentile
Upperclassmen: 37% · 111 of 111 with a class year

Florida

Points per game: 21.6#111 nationally · 18th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 24.0#60 nationally · 56th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 55% of 2024 PPA returns · 54th percentile
Upperclassmen: 34% · 120 of 120 with a class year

Recruiting

Texas

2025 signing class · #1 nationally: 100th percentile · 312.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #3 nationally: 99th percentile · 2.06 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #4 nationally: 98th percentile · 973.5

Florida

2025 signing class · #7 nationally: 96th percentile · 287.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #7 nationally: 96th percentile · 1.59 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #12 nationally: 92nd percentile · 898.6

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Texas: solid line, circles · Florida: dashed line, squares

Texas

Offense · 2025: 32.9 · 78th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 17.9 · 87th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.2 · 77th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 312.3 pts · 100th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 28% returning · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Florida

Offense · SP+ 2025: 24.5 · 35th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 22.6 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.5 · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 287.8 pts · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 55% returning · 54th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Texas's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Dec 31
vs Michigan · neutral site
W 41–27
Play stats pending
Nov 28 · 69 recorded plays
vs Texas A&M
W 27–17
35%
Success rate
0.22
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 61 recorded plays
vs Arkansas
W 52–37
49%
Success rate
0.41
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Texas

Head coach: Steve Sarkisian
career +13.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Maize & Blue Nation, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: A. J. Milwee
Co-offensive coordinator · career +29.3 SP+ offense; Kyle Flood
career +29.3 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Will Muschamp
career +10.6 SP+ defense
Photo: Enoch Lai, CC BY 3.0

Florida

Head coach: Jon Sumrall
First season as Florida's head coach · career +7.5 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Buster Faulkner
career +28.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Brad White
career +19.2 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Series tied 1–1 since 2000

2025 · Florida 29, Texas 21
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
2024 · Texas 49, Florida 17
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Texas: 13 games
Florida: 12 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Texas's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

Florida has no clear answer on this matchup

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

When each team has the ball

When Texas has the ball

Texas offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Florida defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Florida has the ball

Florida offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Texas defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

Arch Manning

Tre Wisner

Ryan Wingo

Texas player production

Florida player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Texas

Florida

Recruiting

Texas

Florida

Season percentile profiles

Texas

Florida

Texas's recent games

vs Michigan · neutral site

vs Texas A&M

vs Arkansas

The coaching staff

Texas

Florida

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Texas's defense leads its matchup in