Saturday, October 17

Florida

4–2

Texas

4–1 · AP #7

12:00 PM ET11:00 AM CTDKR-Texas Memorial StadiumAustin, TX

Weather

Partly cloudy68°FN 13 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 11:00 AM CT · Updated 1:36 PM CT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Austin · local time (CT)

Kickoff hour

Partly cloudy68°FN 13 mphGusts 25 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Evidence sections show 2025 background.

Game forecast

21%

Florida win probability

Texas 79%

Texas by 11.3

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±14.3 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Texas's case

Texas's defense leads its matchup in

Texas's defense was in the 80th percentile for points allowed per game last season. Florida's offense was in the 18th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

02 · Florida's answer

Florida has no clear answer on this matchup

None of its offense's numbers stood out against Texas's defense last season.

03 · What could swing it

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 25 mph at kickoff.

See the weather

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Florida has the ball

Florida offense: 36th
Texas defense: 67th

Show the underlying numbers

Florida offensive per play: 0.1436th percentile · #85 nationally
Texas PPA allowed per play: 0.1067th percentile · #39 nationally
Florida: 43%55th percentile · #62 nationally
Texas success rate allowed: 39%69th percentile · #43 nationally
Florida points per game: 21.618th percentile · #111 nationally
Texas points allowed per game: 20.380th percentile · #28 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.

Florida offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.16
Rush success: 45.5%

Texas defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.26
Rush success allowed: 38.0%

When Texas has the ball

Texas offense: 56th
Florida defense: 40th

Show the underlying numbers

Texas offensive PPA per play: 0.1856th percentile · #55 nationally
Florida PPA allowed per play: 0.1740th percentile · #76 nationally
Texas success rate: 40%30th percentile · #95 nationally
Florida success rate allowed: 43%33rd percentile · #91 nationally
Texas points per game: 30.570th percentile · #41 nationally
Florida points allowed per game: 24.056th percentile · #60 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Texas offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.44
Rush success: 37.0%

Florida defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.30
Rush success allowed: 45.1%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

DJ Lagway · 91% of charted pass attempts

Throwing right

Share of charted plays: 52%
Usage: charted in this direction: 168 attempts
Yards / attempt: 7.2; over 165 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 68%; over 165 attempts with a result

323 of 336 have a direction · 13 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 12 of 12 games

Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 288 short · 35 deep · 13 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go right (52%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 10.8 over 56 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Florida offense in 2025

DJ Lagway

QB · 12 games

213/337 · 63% season

Passing yards: 2,264
Touchdowns: 16
Interceptions: 14

Last game

Florida State · Nov 29, 2025: 15/24, 168 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

Jadan Baugh

RB · 12 games

Carries: 220
Rushing yards: 1,170
Touchdowns: 8

Last game

Florida State · Nov 29, 2025: 38 carries, 266 yds, 2 TD

Vernell Brown III

WR · 10 games

Receptions: 40
Receiving yards: 524
Touchdowns: 0

Last game

Florida State · Nov 29, 2025: 4 rec, 25 yds, 0 TD

Florida player tables

Who is producing

Florida player production

2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view

Florida — Passing production
Player
D.J. LagwayQB	12	213 / 337	2,264	6.7	16	14
Tramell Jones Jr.QB	2	21 / 35	191	5.5	2	0

2 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

Texas player tables

Who is producing

Texas player production

2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view

Texas — Passing production
Player
Arch ManningQB	13	248 / 404	3,163	7.8	26	7
Matthew CaldwellQB	4	8 / 11	85	7.7	1	0
Ryan WingoWR	2	0 / 2	0	0.0	0	0
Karle Lacey Jr.QB	1	1 / 1	7	7.0	0	0
Parker LivingstoneWR	1	1 / 1	4	4.0	1	0

5 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Florida's line averages 311.7 lbs against Texas's 294.4 lbs front — an edge of 17.3 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Florida OLFlorida OL vs Texas DL	311.7 lbs	294.4 lbs
Texas OLTexas OL vs Florida DL	319.4 lbs	293.9 lbs

Florida
Texas

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.

Florida

Points per game: 21.6#111 nationally · 18th percentile · 12 games
Points allowed per game: 24.0#60 nationally · 56th percentile · 12 games
Returning production: 55% of 2024 PPA returns · 54th percentile
Upperclassmen: 34% · 120 of 120 with a class year

Texas

Points per game: 30.5#41 nationally · 70th percentile · 13 games
Points allowed per game: 20.3#28 nationally · 80th percentile · 13 games
Returning production: 28% of 2024 PPA returns · 28th percentile
Upperclassmen: 37% · 111 of 111 with a class year

Recruiting

Florida

2025 signing class · #7 nationally: 96th percentile · 287.8 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #7 nationally: 96th percentile · 1.59 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #12 nationally: 92nd percentile · 898.6

Texas

2025 signing class · #1 nationally: 100th percentile · 312.3 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2022–2025 · #3 nationally: 99th percentile · 2.06 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2025 · #4 nationally: 98th percentile · 973.5

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Florida: solid line, circles · Texas: dashed line, squares

Florida

Offense · 2025: 24.5 · 35th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 22.6 · 69th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.5 · 84th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 287.8 pts · 96th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 55% returning · 54th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Texas

Offense · SP+ 2025: 32.9 · 78th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2025: 17.9 · 87th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2025: 1.2 · 77th percentile; CFBD, 2025 season to date
Recruiting · 2025 signing class: 312.3 pts · 100th percentile; CFBD, 2025 signing class
Experience · returning production 2025: 28% returning · 28th percentile; CFBD, 2025 roster

Florida's recent games

Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Nov 29 · 60 recorded plays
vs Florida State
W 40–21
53%
Success rate
0.43
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 26 recorded plays
vs Tennessee
L 11–31
35%
Success rate
0.05
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 58 recorded plays
at Ole Miss
L 24–34
33%
Success rate
0.20
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Florida

Head coach: Jon Sumrall
First season as Florida's head coach · career +7.5 SP+ overall
Photo: Bobak Ha'Eri, CC BY 3.0
Offensive coordinator: Buster Faulkner
career +28.2 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Brad White
career +19.2 SP+ defense

Texas

Head coach: Steve Sarkisian
career +13.2 SP+ overall
Photo: Maize & Blue Nation, CC BY 2.0
Offensive coordinator: A. J. Milwee
Co-offensive coordinator · career +29.3 SP+ offense; Kyle Flood
career +29.3 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Will Muschamp
career +10.6 SP+ defense
Photo: Enoch Lai, CC BY 3.0

Head-to-head

Series tied 1–1 since 2000

2025 · Florida 29, Texas 21
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
2024 · Texas 49, Florida 17
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2025 full season

Florida: 12 games
Texas: 13 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2025 full season, garbage time included · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2025 full season, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2025 full season, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2025 season to date · compared with 2025 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2025 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Texas's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

Florida has no clear answer on this matchup

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

When each team has the ball

When Florida has the ball

Florida offense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Texas defense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

When Texas has the ball

Texas offense · 2025 season · 7 of the last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Florida defense · 2025 season · Last 8 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing right

Who's driving the offense?

DJ Lagway

Jadan Baugh

Vernell Brown III

Florida player production

Texas player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Florida

Texas

Recruiting

Florida

Texas

Season percentile profiles

Florida

Texas

Florida's recent games

vs Florida State

vs Tennessee

at Ole Miss

The coaching staff

Florida

Texas

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Texas's defense leads its matchup in